Middle East conflict, extreme US policy uncertainty, Chinese economic slowdown, US-Russian proxy war, and Asian military conflicts do not create a stable investment backdrop for 2024. Our top five “black swan” risks may be highly…

Executive Summary EU Embargoes Russian Oil  The EU imposed an embargo on 90% of Russian oil imports, which will provoke retaliation. Russia will squeeze Europe’s economy ahead of critical negotiations over the coming 6-…

Special Report

Executive Summary The Declining Value Of An Old Friendship  India may buy cheap oil from Russia, but oil alone cannot expand this partnership. India needs to maintain a balance of power against China and Pakistan. With…

Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out  Macron is still favored to win the French election but Le Pen’s odds are 45%. Le Pen would halt France’s neoliberal structural reforms,…

Special Report

Highlights As US and China’s grand strategies collide, expect major and minor geopolitical earthquakes whose epicenter will now lie in South Asia and the Indian Ocean basin. Another tectonic change will drive South Asia’s…

Highlights Three distinct forces are likely to make South Asia’s geopolitical risks increasingly relevant to global investors. First, India’s tensions with China stem from China’s growing foreign policy assertiveness…

Highlights Massive fiscal deficits and high borrowing costs have led the government into a debt trap: interest payments alone cost the exchequer nearly half its revenues. Pursuing a tight fiscal and monetary policy now reduces the…

Pakistani stock prices in US dollar terms are currently 20% lower than their January high and 56% lower than their 2017 high (Chart I-1, top panel). Meanwhile, the government projected a contraction in real GDP during the fiscal year 2019…