The death of the Iranian president reinforces our base case view of Middle Eastern instability and at least minor oil supply shocks. Rapid geopolitical developments in recent weeks are pointing to a new bout of global instability.…
The stock market will suffer a setback from the weakening labor market and a rebound in US and global policy uncertainty.
For obvious reasons, making money should not be the objective of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). It serves to provide the energy needs of the American people in case of a crisis. Some have even criticized the Biden…
Investors should prepare for economic data to weaken even as policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk skyrocket ahead of the US election.
The Canadian dollar typically has two main drivers: interest rate differentials and commodity prices, especially oil prices. However, the relationship between the CAD and oil has broken down recently. As our FX strategists have…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy and Geopolitical Strategy services, there are several avenues for tensions between Israel and Iran to escalate. Investors need to hedge against a 30% risk of a…
The implication is that Israel chose not to escalate the risk of direct war with Iran. Hence we remain in our base-case “Minor War, Minor Oil Shock” scenario.
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the US-Russia conflict will re-escalate pre-election. Russia has taken 18% of Ukraine’s territory but has not yet clinched its victory. The western powers…
Our quant models suggest Democrats are still slightly favored for the White House. Our Senate model favors Republican control, though Montana and Ohio are the weak links that could deliver Democrats a de facto Senate majority in the…
In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and…