Natural Gas
Highlights The Greens are likely to win control of Germany’s government in the September 26 federal elections. At least they will be very influential in the new coalition. Germany has achieved may of its long-term geopolitical goals within the EU. There is consensus on dovish monetary and…
Highlights Continued upgrades to global economic growth – most recently by the IMF this week –will support higher natgas prices. In our estimation, gas for delivery at Henry Hub, LA, in the coming withdrawal season (November – March) is undervalued at current levels at ~ $2.90/MMBtu.…
US-Russia Pipeline Standoff Could Move LNG Prices Higher…
The Natgas Outlook
The…
Highlights We expect limited upside to gas prices from current levels as the comeback of US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports will add to an already oversupplied market. In the short term, prices will remain below full-cycle costs. This will limit investment in LNG and the infrastructure…
Highlights Theoretically the US could employ a “Reverse Kissinger” strategy – befriend Russia to isolate China or at least prevent the budding Russo-Chinese alliance. But Trump has made no headway in relations with Russia. Meanwhile Democrats now see engagement with Putin as a failure…
Trading Natural Gas…
Highlights US dry gas production – the gas traded on futures exchanges and consumed by firms and households – is expected to fall ~ 2.5% this year to 89.7 bcf/d. Consumption will be down ~ 4% to 74.3 bcf/d. High carryout stocks from a warmer-than-normal winter mean US natgas storage…
Natgas Prices Will Eventually Recover…
Overweight
Crude Oil And E&P Are Joined At The Hip…