Depending on market volatility during the next few trading days, the Fed will either lift rates by 25 bps next week or pause its tightening cycle. Either way, the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak but rate cuts won’t be coming…

Special Report

The first legislative meeting of Xi Jinping’s third term suggests that Chinese policy is continuous and consistent with the previous ten years, which is negative for long-term productivity.

Great Power Rivalry is taking another leg up as Russia and China further align their geopolitical interests. Investors should stay long USD-CNY, favor defensives over cyclicals, and markets like North America and DM Europe that have…

Thai stocks and currency will weaken over the short term. And yet EM equity portfolios should overweight Thailand as tourism revivals will rejuvenate this economy.

We discuss the outlook for the Fed’s balance sheet and why QT is likely to continue for at least another year.

Two developments this week reinforce our key views for 2023. First, Russia’s threat to reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, while escalating the war in Ukraine, confirms that geopolitical risk will rebound and new oil…

Special Report

Highlights Market expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year reflect either an extremely mild US recession, or a nonrecessionary scenario in which inflation falls rapidly back toward the Fed’s target. In the case of a true…

Special Report

Global investors should sell Chinese assets on strength this year and diversify into other emerging markets. American investors should limit China exposure. Short CNY-USD.

Special Report

China’s infrastructure investment growth rate will likely slow from its current nominal 14% to 4-6% in 2023H1, on a year-over-year basis. Funding constraints and a shrinking pool of good projects will cap the upside in China’s…

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2023. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and…