Money/Credit/Debt

Although the comprehensive economic surprise indexes continued weakening in May, the metrics in our equity downgrade checklist haven’t softened enough to check more boxes now. While we continue to expect the US economy will enter a recession before year end, it is not yet certain and we remain tactically neutral.

MORENA has once again swept the Mexican election: Claudia Sheinbaum will be president, with little to no constraint in Congress. All in all, Mexican politics will remain stable and overall supportive of markets. In the medium term, fiscal spending will return to conservatism and the constitutional reforms will lead to mixed fiscal and economic repercussions. In the long term, however, fiscal and institutional risks will rise. We advise investors to remain overweight Mexican risk assets relative to EM in cyclical and structural time horizons, but prepare for Mexican markets to sell off in absolute and relative terms in the next couple of months.

European stocks have massively underperformed US ones since the GFC. Demographics and productivity say this trend will continue, but is that really so?

China is trying to export its way out of its economic slowdown while the US has already formed a hawkish consensus on foreign policy and trade. Investors should take cover as global financial markets are underrating the new phase of the trade war, which will escalate from here.

Q1 Earnings and sales growth were strong, but the devil is in the details: Without the Magnificent Five, earnings growth for the index would have been negative. On a positive note, margins have stabilized, and earnings growth is expected to broaden into yearend. Companies are optimistic about the economy. Development of AI applications is in full swing, but few companies are monetizing them yet. Consumer spending is strong but is slowing. We reiterate our underweight of consumer sectors, and overweight of Software and Services as the “don’t fight AI” adage holds.