Special Report

In this BCA Special Report, we ask what policies investors should expect if Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential election. The answer is that a second Trump term would be much less positive for risky assets than the first. While…

Recessions often begin seemingly out of the blue when the economy’s temperature falls enough to set in motion adverse feedback loops that cause unemployment to rise. We expect the US economy to suddenly freeze over towards the end of…

Special Report

China will continue to suffer from a “triple crisis”. Though there could be a tactical bounce, cyclically we still recommend underweighting Chinese equities.

Special Report

Indonesia will not revert to dictatorship. Yet the guardrails against authoritarianism are also constraining the actions of the next government in tackling near term domestic and regional challenges. For long-term positioning, use…

In this Insight, we share our thoughts on yesterday’s FOMC meeting and the Fed’s likely next moves, with implications for US bond strategy.

We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two…

We present the performance review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio for 2023. We also discuss the outlook for 2024 performance based on our Key Views for the year. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from a…

In this Strategy Insight, we assess the monetary policy path for Australia and Canada in 2024 and we discuss how to profit from a growing divergence between the two economies.

Disinflation coupled with sticky wage growth is likely to result in either a second wave of inflation or layoffs and a recession. In the meantime, market expectations for sales, growth, and margins are overly optimistic and are…

The Fed faces a dilemma. Cut rates early to avoid a recession, but at the risk of not slaying wage inflation. Or, not cut rates early to ensure that wage inflation is slayed, but at the risk of a downturn. Faced with such a dilemma,…