Our thoughts on this afternoon’s Fed decision and the bond market reaction. 

To produce a moderate economic recovery, at least RMB 3 trillion in additional government expenditures is needed in H1 2025. Our bias is that Beijing is not yet ready to launch such a massive fiscal support measure. Hence, volatility…

Special Report

Favor Health Care and Utilities for defensive positioning amid economic slowdown and volatility as the presidential election approaches. A Republican Sweep favors Real Estate and Materials, while the second most likely outcome,…

Special Report

In this Special Report, we assess the impact of monetary policy tightening on major economies. Interest rate sensitive GDP already slowed significantly in response to the aggressive rate hiking cycle. Despite the beginning of policy…

The current Fed easing cycle will likely be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon. The basis is our expectation that the US economy is heading into a rough landing. The primary driver of EM currencies is not US interest rates…

The cyclical economy is slowing today. Republicans are now more likely to win a full sweep, crack down on immigration and trade, and at least modestly stimulate the economy. Uncertainty and volatility will rise.

In Section I, we examine some concerning signs of US economic weakness that emerged in June. We also discuss portfolio positioning in the face of falling interest rates and cross-check our recommended US equity overweight in the face…

We look at the implications a various European central bank meetings this week, for currency strategy.

Europe did not witness a major policy reversal. Inflationary pressures are coming down, enabling the ECB to cut rates and European states to maintain soft budgets. Geopolitical challenges ensure that European parties continue to…

Investors should prepare for economic data to weaken even as policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk skyrocket ahead of the US election.