Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and…
US and Chinese oil-demand strength will offset EU weakness next year. Incremental supply growth from non-OPEC 2.0 producers, coupled with a lower risk of the US enforcing its sanctions on Iranian oil exports, reduces our 2024 Brent…
The latest ‘nowcast’ for world economic growth in the fourth quarter has plunged to just 1.2 percent, marking the cusp of another world recession. One important implication is that expectations for oil demand growth and industrial…
Many commentators have attributed the latest increase in Chinese interest rates to an improving economy, the large issuance of government bonds, the tax payments season, and other technical factors. Yet, these explanations are…
In this Insight, we review the performance and rationale for our current set of tactical fixed income trade recommendations. Our highest conviction positions also happen to be our most successful trades: positioning for a narrowing…
Results from Tuesday’s elections suggest that the Democrats are doing better than what their 2024 polling are showing. While the results are marginally positive for equities, investors should not overrate this off-year election,…
Following the October US jobs data, the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time US recession indicator increased from 0.11 to 0.15, meaning that it is fast approaching its event horizon of 0.20. We go through the investment implications. We also…
In financial systems, cracks typically begin on the periphery and then expand to the center. Hence, the ruptures on the fringes often act as an early warning. These fissures tend to widen and spread to the core, causing a breakdown…
The fundamental component of long-term inflation expectations has climbed to its highest level since 2008 in both the US and the euro area. This means that both the Fed and the ECB will need to engineer inflation to undershoot 2…
We maintain our view that China’s economic growth in the coming months will remain lackluster. Beijing's recent measures to provide additional financing may help to bridge the gap in government spending in the rest of 2023 and into…