Following today’s US jobs data release, the Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator inched up to 0.18 and is now just a whisker from its recession event-horizon of 0.20.

Special Report

In this, our final report of the year, we present our main global fixed income investment themes and recommendations for 2024.

The statement from last week’s Central Economic Work Conference indicates that Chinese authorities are still not considering large-scale stimulus in 2024. Odds are that a full-fledged business cycle recovery in 2024 is unlikely.…

Special Report

The major question facing EM investors in 2024 is whether or not EM will cross the Rubicon. The path to a soft landing in the US remains elusive. The recent improvement in global manufacturing/trade will likely prove to be a mid-…

Our US bond team’s thoughts on this afternoon’s FOMC meeting and yesterday’s CPI release.

Special Report

Our 2024 outlook can be encapsulated into just 39 words and three key views. Key view 1: The end of China’s housing boom means the end of the world’s main growth engine. Key view 2: If the Fed and ECB don’t kill the economy, they won…

Democrats are favored to win the election until recession materializes. But recession risks are high. Investors should adopt a defensive and conservative strategy in 2024 amid extreme US policy uncertainty.

Special Report

In this Special Report, we take an in-depth look at the outlook for monetary policy in Australia and discuss the impact of an elevated policy rate on the economy. We recommend an underweight country allocation to Australian…

Illegal immigration into the US has skyrocketed to record levels. Correctly accounting for this, US real consumption growth on a per head basis is already fragile. Meanwhile, the real bond yield is only now approaching the pain point…

In this Insight, we discuss the outlook for monetary policy in New Zealand after this week’s RBNZ policy meeting, and introduce related fixed income and currency trade ideas.