Monetary

Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Fade The Rebound

The New York Fed's Empire Manufacturing Index unexpectedly returned to positive territory in November, climbing 14 points to its highest level since April. The headline index suggests that manufacturing activity is expanding in New York State – a positive…

2 years ago

Essentials

China's Impossible Trinity

According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Chinese policymakers are facing the Impossible Trinity. When faced with rapid currency depreciation in August-September, the PBoC deliberately tightened liquidity and steered interest rates…

2 years ago

Essentials

US Retail Sales Contract In October

The US retail sales release delivered a mixed signal about US consumption. Although the headline figure contracted by 0.1% m/m in October, it was better than expectations of a 0.3% m/m decline. Moreover, the September increase was revised up from 0.7% m/m to…

2 years ago

Essentials

China: Heed The Signal From Positive Data Surprises?

On the surface, the acceleration in Chinese retail sales and industrial production growth in October suggests that the economy is holding up. Retail sales expanded by 7.6% y/y last month – beating expectations of 7.0% y/y following a 5.5% y/y increase in…

2 years ago

FICC

A Plausible Path Back To 2% Inflation: Revisiting Our TIPS Golden Rule

Special Report

This week’s Special report revisits our TIPS Golden Rule. We provide a 12-month inflation forecast and discuss how it impacts our TIPS view.

2 years ago

CoreMacro

The ‘Hidden’ World Recession Of 2022 And Why It Matters Today

The latest ‘nowcast’ for world economic growth in the fourth quarter has plunged to just 1.2 percent, marking the cusp of another world recession. One important implication is that expectations for oil demand growth and industrial metal demand growth are way too optimistic.

2 years ago

Essentials

Soft US Inflation Cements The Fed's Pause

US Treasury yields fell sharply following yesterday’s soft October CPI report, and investors have now officially priced out all remaining rate hikes from the yield curve. In fact, the fed funds futures curve is priced for a 25 basis point rate cut by next…

2 years ago

Essentials

Stay Long 10-Year German Bunds Vs Short 10-Year JGBs

BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service remains long 10-year German bunds vs short 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) as a tactical trade. This trade mirrors the team's two highest conviction strategic views in government bond space,…

2 years ago

FICC

The End Of Fed Tightening Is Now Consensus

Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI print and the bond market’s reaction.

2 years ago

FICC

A Review Of Our Current Tactical Trades

In this Insight, we review the performance and rationale for our current set of tactical fixed income trade recommendations. Our highest conviction positions also happen to be our most successful trades: positioning for a narrowing of the German bund-JGB spread and wider Japanese inflation breakevens.

2 years ago

Monetary

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