Monetary
Thoughts On The Neutral Rate And Policy Restrictiveness…
Median Fed unemployment rate projections are overly optimistic. The Fed will end up cutting more in 2026 than it currently anticipates.
Indonesia’s policy easing will boost domestic demand, but fuel inflation. Current account deficit will widen, and the rupiah will weaken. Stay short the rupiah and go underweight Indonesian stocks, domestic bonds, and sovereign credit in their respective EM portfolios.
ECB Holds Steady, But Risks Still Skewed Towards Easing…
Resilient NAB Survey Undercuts Dovish RBA Pricing…
Eco Watchers Beat But BoJ Hike Still Distant…
US Job Growth Stalls
US…
The August employment report showed a modest increase in labor market slack, enough to cement a 25-basis-point rate cut this month.
Hot HICP Reinforces ECB Pause…
Canada Growth Slips, Surveys Signal Ongoing Weakness…