Monetary
Highlights Fed preview: The Fed will hike rates again this week, and may signal a faster pace of future hikes given signs that U.S. inflation is starting to accelerate. Maintain a below-benchmark duration stance and stay underweight U.S. Treasuries in global hedged bond portfolios. Oversold U.S. Treasuries: While most indicators of positioning and momentum for U.S. Treasuries show a deeply oversold market, an analysis of past such episodes shows that it can take 4-6 months before bond yields correct an oversold condition in the absence of slowing growth or inflation - with yields potentially hitting new highs in the interim. ECB Tapering: The ECB strongly believes that the "stock effect" of its asset purchases matters more for European bond yields than the "flow effect". This suggests that the odds of a European "Taper Tantrum" later this year are low, although bond yields there are still headed higher. Feature Chart of the WeekThis Time Is Different? Global bond markets have calmed down after the big surge that started the year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has traded in a relatively narrow 2.80-2.95% range since the VIX spike in early February, despite a string of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data prints that has triggered sharp downgrades to Q1/2018 U.S. GDP growth forecasts. At the same time, 10-year benchmark yields for other major government bond markets (Germany, France, U.K., Canada) have been drifting lower, but remain above levels that began the year. In the case of U.S. Treasuries, the overall level of yields is being held up by the steady climb at the short-end of the yield curve. Recent hawkish comments from new Fed Chairman Jay Powell and long-time Fed dove Lael Brainard have raised expectations for a rate hike at this week's FOMC meeting, which is now priced as a certainty. The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed to a 10-year high of 2.3%, which is helping keep a floor underneath longer-term Treasury yields despite positioning indicators showing that traders and bond managers already have significantly reduced duration exposure (Chart of the Week). The other factor that is likely holding up global bond yields is the incremental move by the European Central Bank (ECB) towards a tapering of its asset purchases. The market has already repriced both future interest rate expectations and the term premia embedded in European government bond yields, although recent comments from ECB officials suggest that they believe that there will not be a "Taper Tantrum 2.0" in Europe similar to the Treasury market sell-off in 2013. This week, we tackle those two critical issues for bond markets head-on: the implications of large short positions in the U.S. Treasury market versus the ECB taper impact on global bond yields. Our conclusion is that the impact of both is likely overestimated by investors. How To Think About A Technically Oversold Treasury Market The Fed will deliver another rate hike this week. That outcome has already been fully discounted by the market, which should not be considered surprising given the current U.S. economic backdrop: Inflation: Underlying inflation has clearly bottomed out and has begun to accelerate, with the 3-month annualized growth rate of core CPI inflation now up over 3% (Chart 2). That trend should continue in the next several months: our model for CPI Shelter inflation is calling for a pickup (2nd panel), core goods inflation is showing signs of responding to the weakening U.S. dollar (3rd panel), and the big plunge in U.S. wireless phone prices that severely dampened inflation in 2017 is about to wash out of the year-over-year CPI data and boost core services inflation (bottom panel). Growth: Despite some recent signs of softening momentum in the Q1 data, the underlying trend in U.S. growth remains upbeat. Labor demand is accelerating and our payrolls growth model suggests further gains are coming (Chart 3). Corporate profit growth remains solid and the impact of the Trump tax cuts will only boost earnings momentum and business confidence. Leading economic indicators are also accelerating and suggest that any loss of growth momentum in Q1 - which seems to be an annual occurrence despite the seasonal adjustment of data - will be short-lived (bottom panel). Chart 2U.S. Inflation Is Starting To Perk Up Chart 3No Reason For Any Dovish Fed Surprises Financial Conditions: U.S. equity prices have recovered much of the losses suffered during the February VIX-driven correction, while corporate credit spreads remain narrow from a historical perspective (Chart 4). Add in the weaker U.S. dollar - the impact of which is already boosting import prices and potentially following through into the shorter-term inflation expectations of households (bottom panel) - and overall financial conditions remain highly accommodative. Against this positive backdrop, the Fed can feel confident that its growth and inflation forecasts for 2018 will be achieved, and that inflation expectations can continue to climb back to levels consistent with the Fed's inflation target. There is even a chance that the Fed could accelerate its planned pace of rate hikes (Chart 5), particularly if there is an upgrade to the FOMC growth and inflation projections, which will be updated for this week's meeting. Chart 4U.S. Financial Conditions##BR##Remain Accommodative Chart 5All Eyes On##BR##The Dots This Week Yet for all the positive economic, bond-bearish news, one fact stands out - the U.S. Treasury market is deeply oversold from a technical perspective. This should, in theory, limit the ability for bond yields to continue rising and could set up a short-covering bond rally if there is a more meaningful and prolonged slowing of economic growth or inflation. The technical indicators that we regularly monitor for the U.S. Treasury market are all at or near the extremes of the ranges observed since 2000 (Chart 6). Chart 6U.S. Treasuries Are Very Oversold The 10-year Treasury yield is 43bps above its 200-day moving average The 26-week total return of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury index is -4.3% The J.P. Morgan client survey of bond managers and traders showed the largest underweight duration positioning since the mid-2000s, although there has been some recent reduction of those positions The Market Vane index of sentiment for Treasuries is now at 49, near the bottom of the range since 2000 The CFTC data on positioning in 10-year Treasury futures shows a large net short of -8%, scaled by open interest Given this degree of investor negativity toward U.S. Treasuries, some pullback in yields seems inevitable. However, a look back at past episodes where Treasuries were this oversold shows that the timing of such a pullback is highly variable - anywhere from one month to seven months. The determining factor is the growth and inflation backdrop in the U.S. To show this, we did a simple study using two series from our list of Treasury technical indicators. Specifically, we looked at "oversold episodes" since 2000 where the Market Vane Treasury sentiment index dipped below 50 and where the 10-year Treasury yield was trading at least 30bps above its 200-day moving average. We then defined the end of the oversold episode as simply the point when the 10-year Treasury yield fell back below its 200-day moving average. We then looked at the duration (in days), and change in bond yields, for each oversold episode. There were eleven such episodes since the year 2000, not counting the current one which has not yet ended. In Table 1, we list them ranked by the number of days it took to complete each episode as we defined it. The longest correction of an oversold Treasury market since 2000 took place between July 2003 and February 2004, where 203 days passed before the 10-year yield dipped back below its 200-day moving average. The shortest correction was in May 2000, where only 28 days were needed. Table 1A Look At Prior Episodes Of An Oversold U.S. Treasury Market To determine what the U.S. economic backdrop was during each episode, we then simply asked if economic growth was rising or falling, or if inflation was stable/rising or falling, using the ISM Manufacturing index and core PCE inflation as the relevant data series. The answers to those questions are found in the final two columns of Table 1. All the positioning and economic indicators used in our historical study, shaded for the oversold episodes, are shown in Charts 7, 8 and 9. Chart 7U.S. Treasury Market##BR##Oversold Episodes 2000-2005 Chart 8U.S. Treasury Market##BR##Oversold Episodes 2006-2011 Chart 9U.S. Treasury Market##BR##Oversold Episodes 2011 To Today The simplest conclusion that we reached from our study is that the shortest corrections of an oversold Treasury market occurred, unsurprisingly, during the two episodes where both growth and inflation were slowing, with an average length of each episode of 42 days. The four episodes where growth and inflation were both rising had a more variable performance, lasting anywhere from 98 days to 203 days, averaging 156 days per episode. The five episodes where growth was slowing but inflation was stable or rising were also of varying length, averaging 140 days. In other words, it has taken around five months, on average, to correct an oversold Treasury market when inflation was stable or rising, and about 1.5 months when inflation was falling. In the current environment, where the ISM Manufacturing index is in an uptrend and core PCE inflation is rising, we should expect a longer period of time before the Treasury market corrects its oversold condition. If we mark the start of the current episode on February 20th of this year, using the definition described above, then the 10-year Treasury yield may return to its 200-day moving average of 2.4% by August (five months from now). A word of warning for traders and investors looking to play for that move by flipping to a long duration position now, though - the primary trend of the market, defined by that 200-day moving average, is currently rising. It was also rising during the two longest oversold correction episodes 2003-04 and 2013-14. The 10-year Treasury yield only declined -14bps and -17bps, respectively, over those entire episodes. During the 2013-14 episode, also a period similar to today when growth and inflation were both rising, yields actually climbed to new cyclical highs before finally peaking. In other words, betting on a reversal of an oversold bond market without any deterioration in growth and inflation dynamics may generate only modest returns over a lengthy period, and with substantial mark-to-market volatility in the meantime. In the current cycle, with leading indicators for U.S. growth and inflation accelerating and the Fed becoming more hawkish, we recommend maintaining below-benchmark duration positions in the U.S. rather than positioning now for a short-covering rally. Bottom Line: The Fed will hike rates again this week, and may signal a faster pace of future hikes given signs that U.S. inflation is starting to accelerate. While most indicators of positioning and momentum for U.S. Treasuries show a deeply oversold market, an analysis of past such episodes shows that it can take 4-6 months before bond yields correct an oversold condition in the absence of a slowing of economic growth or inflation - with yields potentially hitting new highs in the interim. Maintain a below-benchmark duration stance and stay underweight U.S. Treasuries in global hedged bond portfolios. The ECB Is Betting On A Tantrum-Free Taper Several key ECB officials have been giving speeches over the past week, spelling out a consistent message to the markets on the future of euro area monetary policy. Most notably, ECB President Mario Draghi and ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet gave speeches last week at a conference in Frankfurt. Both of them used nearly identical language to highlight how the ECB's main policy tool going forward will no longer be net asset purchases, but instead will be interest rates and forward guidance on changes to rates.1 This echoes the message sent after the ECB's policy meeting earlier this month, when the commitment to increase the pace of asset purchases was dropped from the ECB policy statement. Both Draghi and Praet repeated the ECB's official stance on the end of asset purchases, which requires a "sustained adjustment" in the path of inflation. This was described by Draghi as: Specifically, a sustained adjustment requires three conditions to be in place. [...] The first is convergence: headline inflation has to be on course to reach our aim over a meaningful definition of the medium term. The second is confidence: we need to be sure that this upward adjustment in inflation has a sufficiently high probability of being realized. The third condition is resilience: the adjustment in inflation has to be self-sustained even without additional net asset purchases. Draghi then went on to add these comments on the sequencing of rate hikes after the asset purchases are completed, with our emphasis added: [...] when progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation is judged to be sufficient, net purchases will come to an end. At that point, next to our forward guidance, appropriate financial conditions will be maintained by our reinvestment policy. [...] as regards the evolution of our policy rates beyond the end of our net purchases, we will maintain the sequencing that is currently set out in our forward guidance, namely our pledge to keep key interest rates at their current levels "well past" the end of net purchases. This time-based element of our guidance is already vital today, in particular to ensure that our policy stimulus is not weakened by premature expectations of a first rate rise, and so financial conditions remain consistent with inflation convergence. That last line can be roughly translated from policymaker-speak as "we want to avoid a Fed-style Taper Tantrum when we stop buying euro area government bonds." Chart 10An Orderly Repricing Of ECB Expectations Praet made similar comments in his speech, discussing how the first rate hike after the end of asset purchases must only take place once there is a "durable convergence" of euro area inflation with the ECB target of just below 2% on headline inflation. So far, the markets have been heeding the ECB's communication and policy guidance. The timing of the ECB's first full 25bp rate hike, taken from our "months-to-hike" indicator, shows that the market does not expect the ECB to adjust rates until November of 2019 (Chart 10). At the same time, the market is only slowly repricing the term premium on longer-dated euro area government bonds, which would be expected if the ECB were to take its time in fully tapering its asset purchases. With realized euro area inflation, and market-based inflation expectations, still well short of the ECB's target, the market appears to be "correctly" following the ECB's guidance on the timetable for future policy moves. This is keeping euro area bond yields at low levels and dampening interest rate volatility. There may be another factor at work holding down bond yields, however. In a speech given at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York last month - an event attended by numerous academic and Wall Street economists, as well as several current FOMC members - ECB Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure discussed the importance of the "stock" effect of central bank asset purchases compared to the "flow" effect.2 Or as Coeure described it: [...] the "stock effect" - that is, the persistence of the effects of the stock of bonds held by the central bank on its balance sheet under a commitment of reinvestment. If the effects of purchases dissipate quickly, a shorter purchase horizon could lead to term premia rising even as interest rate expectations remain well anchored by forward guidance. Financial conditions would then tighten. But if the effectiveness of asset purchases rises with the stock of assets already acquired - if there is some "crossover point" where the stock effect becomes more important than the continued flow of purchases - then a reduced pace of purchases would not unduly decompress the term premium. This brings up an interesting point about the ECB's policy strategy as it prepares to taper its asset purchase program. If the ECB can effectively communicate that it will continue to reinvest the maturing bonds on its balance sheet after the new asset purchases have stopped, then the market will not price in a bigger term premium on longer-dated bonds since the ECB will continue to own a huge share of the stock of euro area government debt. The stock effect will dominate the diminishing flow effect. Coeure noted in his speech that the experience of the U.S. in 2013, when Ben Bernanke surprised markets with talk that the Fed was planning on cutting back its asset purchases, is different than Europe today. The biggest reason is that the ECB owns a far bigger share of the European bond market than the Fed did at that time. That is because the ECB asset purchases since its bond buying program began in 2015 have dwarfed the net issuance of euro area government debt (Chart 11). At no point during the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) era did the central bank ever buy more U.S. Treasuries than the U.S. government was issuing. According to the logic of Benoit Coeure, the smaller Fed "footprint" in the Treasury market relative to the ECB's ownership share of euro area government bonds (Chart 12) should mean that the Treasury term premium will be more volatile than that for German bunds (and other euro area debt). That is because a greater share of Treasury issuance must be sold to private investors who are more price-sensitive than central banks. In other words, the flow effect dominates the stock effect. Chart 11ECB & BoJ Have Been Absorbing##BR##All Net Government Bond Issuance Chart 12The 'Stock Effect' Of QE##BR##Should Be Bigger In Europe & Japan In Chart 13, we try and visually prove Coeure's thesis. The chart plots the gap between central bank asset purchases and net government bond issuance (the blue solid line proxying the "flow effect", using IMF data) for the U.S., euro area and Japan versus our estimates of the term premium (the black dotted line). The correlation appears to be very strong for the euro area and Japan during the era of asset purchases for those central banks, perhaps due to the "stock effect" dominating the "flow effect". This differs from the experience seen in the U.S. during the Fed QE era, when there was no stable relationship between the term premium and the amount of Treasuries the Fed was purchasing relative to net issuance. Looking ahead, there are important implications of this "stock vs. flow" argument for the future direction of euro area (and Japanese) bond yields, both in absolute terms and relative to U.S. Treasuries. In Chart 13, we also added BCA's forecasts for net government bond issuance over the next two years relative to our projections for the pace of asset purchases from the ECB and BoJ (both new purchases and reinvestments), and the Fed's own projections for the runoff of Treasuries from its balance sheet. Our estimates show that there will still be no new government bond issuance for the private sector to absorb in the euro area and Japan in 2018 and 2019, even with the ECB expected to fully taper new buying to zero by the end of this year and the BoJ dramatically cutting back its pace of buying. This contrasts to the U.S., where the private sector will be forced to absorb an extra US$1 trillion (!) of Treasuries this year and next, thanks to the huge Trump fiscal stimulus and the diminished buying by the Fed. U.S. private investors may require a higher yield (i.e. term premium) to absorb that additional debt, especially if inflation expectations are rising and the Fed is hiking interest rates at the same time. The implication is that the spread between Treasuries and euro area debt (and Japanese bonds, for that matter) could stay stubbornly wide - at least until there is more decisive evidence that the U.S. economy is in a cyclical slowdown that would put the Fed rate hiking cycle on hold (Chart 14). Chart 13The 'Flow Effect' Of##BR##QE Does Still Matter Chart 14The 'Stock Effect' Could Keep The##BR##UST-Bund Spread Wider For Longer From the point of view of euro area debt, however, the existence of a "stock effect" means that those investors expecting a Taper Tantrum 2.0 will likely be disappointed in the size of any upward move in euro area bond yields this year. Bottom Line: The ECB strongly believes that the "stock effect" of its asset purchases (how much they already own) matters more for European bond yields than the "flow effect" (how much they are buying). This suggests that the odds of a European "Taper Tantrum" later this year are low, although bond yields there are still headed higher. Robert Robis, Senior Vice President Global Fixed Income Strategy rrobis@bcaresearch.com 1 The Draghi speech can be found at http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2018/html/ecb.sp180314_1.en.html, while the Praet speech can be found at http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2018/html/ecb.sp180314_2.en.html 2 Coeure's speech can be found at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2018/html/ecb.sp180223.en.html Recommendations The GFIS Recommended Portfolio Vs. The Custom Benchmark Index Duration Regional Allocation Spread Product Tactical Trades Yields & Returns Global Bond Yields Historical Returns
Highlights Financial market volatility in general and FX market volatility in particular is set to increase because of the following three factors: Rising U.S. inflation will make the Federal Reserve increasingly hawkish, and the European Central Bank is moving away from maximum accommodation; The Chinese economy is not accelerating; And geopolitical tensions are growing. While EM and commodity currencies will suffer, safe havens like the yen and Swiss franc will benefit. The euro may correct at first, but it remains on an upward trajectory. Feature Chart I-1Low And High Growth Sentiment##br## Are Linked A defining feature of global financial markets over the past two years has been the outright collapse of volatility. However, in late January the VIX rebounded, recording readings not seen since 2015. Currency volatility also hit three-year lows before the same wake-up call, causing a sharp but temporary increase in FX volatility. It is important to understand whether this recent rebound in volatility was just a blip or a symptom of something more profound - a sign that volatility is back on an uptrend and will continue to rise as it did from 1996 to 2002, or again from 2007 to 2009. This matters because volatility is an important determinant of FX returns. High-yielding carry currencies perform well when volatility is low. While low-yielding funding currencies like the Swiss franc or the yen suffer in periods of calm, their returns improve once volatility rises. Moreover, low-volatility environments are often associated with buoyant expectations about global growth among international investors (Chart I-1). Thus, a return of volatility could fray the edges of global growth sentiment, which is currently ebullient. This would hurt EM and commodity currencies. Our view is that volatility is making a comeback as global monetary policy is becoming less accommodative, China's path is becoming rockier and global geopolitical risks are rising. These dynamics will hurt EM and commodity currencies, while at the margin, help safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc. Monetary Policy In DM Economies Monetary policy in the advanced economies is not yet tight, but is moving away from the large accommodation implemented in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis. Historically, a removal of accommodative policy tends to be associated with rising volatility, especially in the FX space. The link is not that clear-cut though. Policy tightening tends to lead to higher volatility. However, it only does so once we enter the latter innings of the business cycle. Only when inflation begins to gain enough momentum to force the Fed to increase rates fast enough to raise the specter that policy will soon begin to hurt growth, does volatility start rising durably. We are getting closer to this moment in the U.S. The U.S. is increasingly showing signs of late-stage business expansion. For one, the yield curve has flattened to 53 basis points. This level of slope has historically been associated with full employment and rising wage pressures. Surveys corroborate this picture. The NFIB survey of U.S. small businesses shows that the gap between the difficulties of finding qualified labor versus demand problems is close to record highs. This normally marks rising wage pressures, the hallmark of full employment (Chart I-2). Moreover, the ISM manufacturing survey shows that companies are paying more for the price of their inputs and experiencing delays with suppliers. Normally, this also describes a late-cycle environment marked with rising inflationary pressures (Chart I-3). Chart I-2Late Cycle Dynamics##br## In The U.S. Chart I-3Firms Are Facing Budding##br## Inflationary Pressures Other variables are generally pointing toward an acceleration of U.S. inflation. Because aggregate U.S. capacity utilization - which incorporates both labor market conditions and the Fed's own capacity utilization measure - highlights a notable absence of slack, and because the change in the velocity of money in the U.S. is accelerating, our models forecast a sustained uptick in U.S. core inflation to 2% and above (Chart I-4). U.S. CPI excluding food and energy data for February is also pointing toward budding inflationary pressures. While the annual core inflation rate was flat compared to January, the annualized three-month rate of change has surged to 3%. The muted year-on-year comparison is being depressed by some base effect. In 2017, inflation started to weaken significantly in March. Therefore, beginning in March 2018, consumer price inflation in the U.S. will likely accelerate more noticeably than it has until now. Shelter inflation too is moving from a headwind to a tailwind. Shelter inflation represents 42% of the core CPI basket, and it has been on a decelerating trend for 14 months. However, the model developed by our U.S. Bond Strategy colleagues shows that U.S. shelter inflation is now set to start bottoming (Chart I-5, top panel). Chart I-4Core Inflation Will Rise Chart I-5Other Inflationary Pressures Core goods prices are also regaining some vigor. This is not much of a surprise. The strength of the global economy along with the weakness of the U.S. dollar have filtered through to higher import prices. Historically, import prices tend to lead core goods prices in the U.S. (Chart I-5, bottom panel). We could see rising inflationary pressures on the services front as well. The employment cost index - the cost component used to compute unit labor costs - is still displaying a tight positive correlation with the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers (Chart I-6). BCA estimates that employment gains above 123,000 new jobs a month will push this ratio up, and consequently labor costs. But as Chart I-7 illustrates, the strength in the Conference Board Leading Credit Index highlights that employment growth in the U.S. is likely to remain robust. This suggests the key driver of service inflation - wages - will continue to improve. Chart I-6Wages Will Keep Rising... Chart I-7...As Employment Growth Will Stay Strong Thus, it seems the stars are already aligning to foment a rise in U.S. core CPI. The Trump administration throwing in some large-scale fiscal stimulus into the mix is only akin to throwing fuel on a fire. Accordingly, we expect the Fed to upgrade its interest rate forecasts for 2019. Markets are not yet ready for this scenario, anticipating only five rate hikes between now and the end of 2019. Thus, the most important central bank for setting the global cost of capital will likely surprise in a hawkish fashion over the coming 21 months. But what about the other big DM central bank, the ECB? The ECB too has begun to remove monetary accommodation, as it has started to taper its purchases of securities. It aims to be done this in September. Moreover, the narrowing gap between the unemployment rate and NAIRU in the euro area points to budding inflationary pressures (Chart I-8). This would argue that the ECB will begin lifting interest rates toward the summer of 2019. In fact, the shadow policy rate for the euro area has already begun to turn higher (Chart I-9), suggesting European policy is already starting to move away from its accommodative extremes. This combination is very important for volatility. As Chart I-10 illustrates, the average shadow policy rate for the U.S., the euro area, the U.K., and Japan leads financial markets and FX volatility. While Japanese rates may remain at low levels, the path for Europe and the U.S. is clearly up, suggesting volatility will rise. Chart I-8Growing Wage Pressures In Europe Chart I-9ECB Policy Is Already Less Accommod Chart I-10Tighter Global Policy Leads To Higher Volatility Bottom Line: The U.S. is increasingly displaying symptoms that its business cycle expansion is at an advanced stage. With inflationary pressures growing more intense, the Fed will need to ratchet up its tightening path. The ECB too has begun removing accommodation. This means that two of the three most important price setters for the cost of money are either fully tightening policy or beginning to remove accommodation. This has historically marked the point when global financial market volatility begins to rise. China Uncertainty China is another factor pointing toward a rise in global financial volatility. China has exerted a benign influence on global growth from the second half of 2016 and through most of 2017. In response to a large easing in monetary conditions and a hefty dose of fiscal stimulus, Chinese growth had until recently regained vigor, with the Li Keqiang index - our preferred measure of Chinese industrial activity - swinging from -2.6 sigma to 0.5 sigma in 15 months. A key gauge of Chinese activity - the average of the new orders and backlog of order subcomponents of the PMIs surveys - captured these dynamics very well. This indicator also explains the gyrations in various measures of asset markets volatility well (Chart I-11). Currently, it points to a rise in global financial market volatility. Going forward, the key question for investors is whether or not Chinese orders continue to deteriorate, flagging a further rise in volatility. We are inclined to say yes. Chinese monetary conditions have continued to deteriorate, and administrative measures to slow down the growth of total social financing are starting to bite. Chart I-12 shows that the issuance of bonds by small financial intermediaries has slowed significantly. Based on this message, the early slowdown in total debt growth should continue over the coming months. Optimists about China often highlight that this should have a limited impact on economic activity. After all, 62% of fixed asset investments in China are financed by internally generated funds. However, the biggest problem for China is the misallocation of capital. As Chart I-13 shows, construction as a percentage of total capex has been linked to population growth. However, after 2008, these two series decoupled: population growth has been stagnating while construction activity has been skyrocketing, despite a slowdown in the rate of migration from rural to urban areas. This suggests that post-2008, China has been building too many structures. Chart I-11China To Affect ##br##Volatility Chart I-12Administrative Tightening Will ##br##Weigh On Chinese Credit Chart I-13After The GFC, Chinese ##br##Construction Took Off When capital is misallocated, even if the share of debt financing is low, tight monetary conditions and administrative measures to limit excesses in the economy can bite sharply. This raises the risk that Chinese growth will not pick up much going forward, and that in fact, capex and industrial activity will struggle. Jonathan LaBerge, who writes BCA's Chinese Investment Strategy, has built a list of some of the key indicators he follows to track the evolution of the Chinese economy. Table I-1 shows that all but the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI index are in a downtrend, and that 11 out of the 14 variables have been deteriorating in recent months.1 Moreover, as Chart I-14 illustrates, the strength in the Caixin PMI is likely to be an aberration. When the spread between the Caixin and the official measure is as wide as it currently is, the following quarters tend to be followed by a fall in the average of the two series. Table I-1No Convincing Signs Of An Impending##br## Upturn In China's Economy Chart I-14The Caixin PMI Is Probably##br## The Noise, Not The Signal We would therefore expect Chinese economic momentum to slow further. Since Chinese policymakers still want to engineer some deleveraging, the Chinese industrial sector will decelerate. This will contribute to the rise in financial market volatility for the remainder of the business cycle, especially as global monetary policy in the G-10 is becoming less accommodative. Bottom Line: The Chinese economy contributed to low levels of volatility in financial markets from 2016 to late 2017. However, China still suffers from a large misallocation of capital, which is making its economy vulnerable to both monetary and administrative tightening. With most key gauges of Chinese economic activity still pointing south, industrial activity could deteriorate further. This will contribute to a rise in global financial market volatility, especially as DM central banks are removing monetary accommodation. Rising Geopolitical Tensions The last factor pointing toward rising financial market volatility are growing global geopolitical tensions. As Marko Papic has highlighted in BCA's Geopolitical Strategy service, the world's unipolar moment under the umbrella of U.S. dominance is over. The world is increasingly becoming a multi-polar environment, where multiple powers vie for local dominance. As the early 20th century and the 1930s showed, when the world becomes multi-polar, geopolitical risks rise (Chart I-15). Chart I-15Geopolitical Risk Is The Outcome Of Global Multipolarity Today's increasingly multi-polar world may not be headed for an imminent global war, but tensions are likely to increase. This means policies could become more erratic. Additionally, domestic politics are under stain as well. Rising inequality and social stagnation in the U.S. are fomenting public discontent (Chart I-16). Moreover, U.S. citizens are not champions of free trade; in fact, they view unfettered trade with a rather suspicious eye, as do the citizens of Italy, Japan or France (Chart I-17). Chart I-16The U.S. Is Unequal And Ossified Chart I-17America Belongs To The Anti-Globalization Bloc Practically, this means tensions such as those experienced two weeks ago around the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports into the U.S. are likely to continue. The White House is already discussing the possibility of imposing a 15% tariff on Chinese imports to the U.S. totaling US$60 billion. As we highlighted last week, alleged intellectual property theft by China will likely remain a hot-button topic that could result in painful sanctions, prompting swift retaliation by Beijing. Additionally, NAFTA negotiations are not over, pointing to continued headline risk in the space. Moreover, relations with Russia are tense, and the Iran deal looks increasingly fraught with uncertainty. These two spots could easily morph into yet another source of risk. Bottom Line: The global geopolitical environment has become a multi-polar system - an environment historically prone to serious tensions. The rise of populism in the U.S. only makes this risk more salient, especially with respect to global trade. As a result, the threat of a trade war, especially between the U.S. and China, is increasing. This means shocks to global trade and global growth could become more frequent. This will likely create another source of financial market volatility, compounding the impact of economic fundamentals like global monetary policy and China's economic risks. Investment Implications Carry trades should fare especially poorly in this environment, as they abhor rising volatility.2 Hence, the performance of EM high-yielders like the BRL, TRY, and ZAR could progressively deteriorate. Moreover, because rising volatility often hurts economic sentiment, this increase in volatility could weigh on growth-sensitive currencies like the KRW in the EM space or the AUD and the NZD in the DM space. The SEK would normally suffer when global growth sentiment deteriorates. Yet this time may play out differently. Swedish short rates are -0.5%, making the SEK a funding currency. If carry trades do suffer, the need to buy back funding currencies could put a bid under the SEK. In this context, the JPY and the CHF could be the great winners. Both currencies have been used as funding vehicles. Moreover, both Switzerland and Japan sport outsized net international investment positions equal to 126% and 65% of their respective GDPs. If volatility does rise, some Swiss and Japanese investors will likely repatriate funds from abroad, generating purchases of yen and Swiss francs in the process. Moreover, from an empirical perspective, both these currencies continue to react well when global volatility spikes. Chart I-18The Euro Is Vulnerable To Higher Vol However, both Japan and Switzerland are still experiencing weak inflation. The BoJ and the SNB will therefore try to lean against currency strength caused by exogenous volatility shocks. The JPY and the CHF could be caught between these forces. The currency depreciation these central banks try to engineer will be occasionally interrupted by sharp rallies when financial market volatility spikes. This means that monetary policy in these two countries will have to stay extremely accommodative. For now, it is still too early to bet against the yen's current strength. Finally, the impact of rising volatility on the euro's outlook is more nebulous. The euro is neither a carry currency nor a funding currency, but it generally appreciates when global growth sentiment improves. Thus, since long positioning in the euro is very stretched, a renewed spike in volatility would likely hurt the euro, especially as European economic surprises are plummeting relative to the U.S. (Chart I-18). Nonetheless, this pain will be a temporary phenomenon. The euro is still cheap, and one of the factors driving global volatility higher is the ECB abandoning its accommodative monetary policy stance. Moreover, as terminal interest rate expectations in Europe are still well below their historical average relative to the U.S., there is still ample room for investors to upgrade their assessment of where the European policy rate will end up vis-à-vis the U.S. at the end of the cycle. Bottom Line: Any negative impact of rising global financial markets volatility will be felt most acutely by carry and growth-sensitive currencies like the BRL, TRY, ZAR, AUD, and KRW. Contrastingly, funding currencies underpinned with large positive net international investment positions such as the JPY and the CHF will be beneficiaries. The impact on the euro may be negative at first, as speculators are massively long the euro despite a collapse in euro area economic surprises. However, the long-term impact should prove to be more muted as the euro's fundamentals are still improving. Mathieu Savary, Vice President Foreign Exchange Strategy mathieu@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see China Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "China And The Risk Of Escalation", dated March 7,2018, available at cis.bcaresearch.com. 2 Please see Foreign Exchange Strategy Special Report, titled "Carry Trades: More than Pennies And Steamrollers", dated May 6, 2016, available at fes.bcaresearch.com. Currencies U.S. Dollar Chart II-1USD Technicals 1 Chart II-2USD Technicals 2 U.S. data was generally positive for the dollar: Headline and core CPI came in line with expectations, growing at 2.2% and 1.8% annually, respectively; NFIB Business Optimism Index was hit 107.6, beating expectations of 107.1; Continuing jobless claims came in at 1.879 million, beating the expected 1.9 million; Initial jobless claims came in line with expectations at 226,000; However, retail sales came in weaker than expected, contracting by 0.1% monthly. Despite this generally positive tone to the data, the dollar was still soft this week. However, downward momentum has slowed, paving the way for a short-term counter trend rally. This is consistent with a global growth slowdown. Report Links: Are Tariffs Good Or Bad For The Dollar? - March 9, 2018 The Dollar Deserves Some Real Appreciation - March 2, 2018 Who Hikes Again? - February 9, 2018 The Euro Chart II-3EUR Technicals 1 Chart II-4EUR Technicals 2 European data was disappointing: Industrial production contracted in monthly terms by 1% and also grew at only 2.7% yearly, less than the expected 4.7% pace; German CPI grew at a 1.4% yearly pace, with the harmonized index growing by 1.2%, both in line with expectations. In a speech on Wednesday, President Draghi clarified that "monetary policy will remain patient, persistent and prudent" as there is still a need for "further evidence that inflation dynamics are moving in the right direction". As global growth is downshifting, the euro could experience a significant correction before resuming its bull market. Report Links: Who Hikes Again? - February 9, 2018 The Euro's Tricky Spot - February 2, 2018 From Davos To Sydney, With a Pit Stop In Frankfurt - January 26, 2018 The Yen Chart II-5JPY Technicals 1 Chart II-6JPY Technicals 2 Recent data in Japan has been mixed: Machinery orders yearly growth came in at 2.9%, outperforming expectations. However, domestic corporate goods inflation surprised to the downside, coming in at 2.5%. Moreover, the tertiary industry Index month-on-month growth also underperformed expectations, coming in at -0.6%. Finally, labor cash earnings yearly growth came in line with expectations at 0.7%. Last Friday, the BoJ decided to leave its interest rate benchmark unchanged at 0.1%. In its minutes, the board members shared the view that CPI will reach their 2% in fiscal 2019. Overall, we expect that rising global interest rates will cause a rise in currency volatility. This will result in a positive environment for the yen for now, but one that could prevent Japanese inflation from hitting that 2% objective in 2019. Report Links: The Yen's Mighty Rise Continues... For Now - February 16, 2018 Who Hikes Again? - February 9, 2018 Yen: QQE Is Dead! Long Live YCC! - January 12, 2018 British Pound Chart II-7GBP Technicals 1 Chart II-8GBP Technicals 2 Recent data in the U.K. has been mixed: Industrial production yearly growth underperformed expectations, coming in at 1.6%. Manufacturing production also underperformed expectations, coming in at 2.7%. However, the trade balance outperformed expectations, coming in at -3.074 billion pounds. The pound has been relatively flat this week against the U.S. dollar. Overall, we believe that the upside to the British pound against the dollar is limited, as there are already 40 basis points of interest rate hikes priced for the BoE this year. Given that inflation is set to ease following last year's rally in the pound, it is unlikely that the pound will raise rates more than what is currently priced. Report Links: Who Hikes Again? - February 9, 2018 The Euro's Tricky Spot - February 2, 2018 10 Charts To Digest With The Holiday Trimmings - December 22, 2017 Australian Dollar Chart II-9AUD Technicals 1 Chart II-10AUD Technicals 2 Australian data was mixed: Home loans fell by 1.1%; Investment lending for homes increased by 1.1%; The NAB Confidence survey declined to 9 from 11 but was in line with expectations; The NAB Conditions survey increased to 21, outperforming expectations; The Westpac Consumer Confidence increased from -2.3% to 0.2%. Elevated Household debt and the absence of wage growth are still at the forefront of Australian policymaker's minds. The RBA is reluctant to raise rates in order to avoid a deflationary spiral which would set the economy back severely. The AUD will most likely suffer this year because of this. Report Links: Who Hikes Again? - February 9, 2018 From Davos To Sydney, With a Pit Stop In Frankfurt - January 26, 2018 10 Charts To Digest With The Holiday Trimmings - December 22, 2017 New Zealand Dollar Chart II-11NZD Technicals 1 Chart II-12NZD Technicals 2 Recent data in New Zealand has been negative: The current account surprised to the downside, coming in at -2.7% of GDP. Moreover, GDP yearly growth also underperformed expectations, coming in at 2.9%. However, it did improve from last quarter growth of 2.7%. Finally, Food Price Index monthly growth decline from last month, coming in at -0.5%. The New Zealand dollar has been flat this week against the U.S. dollar. We believe that NZD/USD and NZD/JPY are likely to suffer moving forward, as financial markets volatility is set to rise in the coming months due to the rise in global interest rates and the possibility of a slowdown in China. Report Links: Who Hikes Again? - February 9, 2018 10 Charts To Digest With The Holiday Trimmings - December 22, 2017 The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Canadian Dollar Chart II-13CAD Technicals 1 Chart II-14CAD Technicals 2 Canadian employment figures remain strong, with the ADP employment change coming in at 39,700, above the 10,700 experienced last month. Canada's export growth should improve further as the White House is adding large amounts of fiscal stimulus in the U.S. economy, Canada's largest trading partner. This will help the BoC stick to its hiking path. However, risks are high. While Canada has so far been able to avoid the U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, NAFTA negotiations still remain a danger for the Canadian economy. Furthermore, the housing market still remains overheated and the debt load is at risk of spiraling when mortgages begin to be refinanced at higher rates. Report Links: Who Hikes Again? - February 9, 2018 Yen: QQE Is Dead! Long Live YCC! - January 12, 2018 10 Charts To Digest With The Holiday Trimmings - December 22, 2017 Swiss Franc Chart II-15CHF Technicals 1 Chart II-16CHF Technicals 2 The SNB left its reference rate unchanged at -0.75%. The Swiss central bank reiterated that the negative rates as well as foreign exchange intervention "remain essential". Moreover, the SNB decreased its inflation forecast for this year form 0.7% to 0.6%. The SNB also changed its forecast for 2019 from 1.1% to 0.9%. Overall, the SNB is likely to maintain a very dovish stance, given the headwinds to Swiss inflation. This will continue to put upward pressure on EUR/CHF. Report Links: Who Hikes Again? - February 9, 2018 10 Charts To Digest With The Holiday Trimmings - December 22, 2017 The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Norwegian Krone Chart II-17NOK Technicals 1 Chart II-18NOK Technicals 2 Recent data in Norway has been positive: Headline inflation surprised to the upside, coming in at 2.2%. It also increased from 1.6% the previous month. Meanwhile, core inflation also outperformed expectations, coming in at 1.4%. It also increased from 1.1% the previous month. USD/NOK has depreciated by roughly 1.4% this week. On Thursday, the Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%. In its monetary policy report the central bank highlighted that the outlook for the Norwegian economy suggests that "it will soon be appropriate to raise rates". Overall, we believe that the krone is likely to outperform other commodity currencies, given that there are only 18 basis points priced for the next 12 months, which is less than is warranted given the strength of the economy and BCA's outlook for oil prices in 2018. Report Links: Who Hikes Again? - February 9, 2018 Yen: QQE Is Dead! Long Live YCC! - January 12, 2018 10 Charts To Digest With The Holiday Trimmings - December 22, 2017 Swedish Krona Chart II-19SEK Technicals 1 Chart II-20SEK Technicals 2 While Swedish inflation came in line with expectations, with consumer prices growing at a 0.7% monthly pace and a 1.6% yearly pace, Sweden's unemployment came in at a much lower level than anticipated. The krona is finally strengthening after EUR/SEK traded above the critical 10.00 level. This trend should continue as the euro weakens from overbought levels. Furthermore, the eventual resurgence of inflation in Sweden will propel the SEK to stronger levels as markets reprice the Riksbank's likely policy path. Report Links: Who Hikes Again? - February 9, 2018 10 Charts To Digest With The Holiday Trimmings - December 22, 2017 Canaries In The Coal Mine Alert 2: More On EM Carry Trades And Global Growth - December 15, 2017 Trades & Forecasts Forecast Summary Core Portfolio Tactical Trades Closed Trades
Highlights There are many things that central bankers know they don't know. "Known unknowns" include the outlook for growth (both actual and potential), NAIRU, the neutral rate of interest, and the true shape of the Phillips curve. "Unknown unknowns" are, by definition, unknowable, but are often at the heart of economic downturns. Central bankers, like military leaders, tend to fight the last war. They have tirelessly waged a battle against deflation over the past decade, so it is logical to conclude that they will err on the side of keeping monetary policy too loose rather than too tight. This will prolong the recovery, but it also means that economic and financial imbalances will be greater by the time the next downturn rolls around, most likely in 2020. Keep a close eye on credit spreads. Stay overweight risk assets for now, but look to move to neutral later this year and outright underweight in the first half of 2019. Bond yields will fall as the next recession approaches, but they will do so from higher levels than today. Feature Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones. - Donald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense under George W. Bush Uncertainty Galore Central bankers know many things. They know that growth is currently strong across most of the world, unemployment is falling and inflation, while still low, has been slowly trending higher. Unfortunately, there are also many things they don't know. These include things they know they don't know, as well as things that are not even on their radar screens - the "unknown unknowns" that Donald Rumsfeld famously warned about. Known Unknowns Let's start with five "known unknowns." 1. Will Growth Stay Strong? Global growth has likely peaked, but should remain comfortably above-trend over the remainder of this year (Chart 1). The OECD's Global Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) has leveled off, while the diffusion index, which tabulates the share of countries with rising LEIs, has dropped below 50 percent. A fall in the diffusion index has often foreshadowed outright declines in the composite LEI. Consistent with this prognosis, the Citi global Economic Surprise Index has swooned, the Chinese Keqiang index has decelerated, and Korean export growth - a leading indicator for global trade - has slowed. Global manufacturing PMIs have also edged off their highs (Chart 2). The one exception is the U.S., where the ISM index continues to power higher. Despite the occasional blip such as this week's retail sales report - which was probably depressed by tax refund delays - recent U.S. economic data have been reasonably upbeat. Goldman Sachs' Current Activity Indicator remains near cycle highs, implying strong momentum going into the second quarter. Chart 1Global Growth Has Peaked ##br##But Will Remain Above Trend Chart 2Global Manufacturing PMIs ##br##Are Off Their Highs Changes in financial conditions tend to lead growth by about six-to-nine months. U.S. financial conditions have eased a lot more since the start of 2017 than elsewhere (Chart 3). In addition, U.S. fiscal policy is likely to be much more expansionary over the next two years than in the rest of the world (Chart 4). All this suggests that the composition of global growth will shift in favor of the U.S. over the coming months. Chart 3Composition Of Global ##br##Growth Will Shift To The U.S. ... Chart 4U.S. Fiscal Policy Will Become More ##br##Expansionary Than In R.O.W. 2. Will Potential Growth Accelerate? The U.S. unemployment rate has declined from a high of 10% in 2009 to 4.1% in February 2018, even though real GDP growth has averaged a meager 2.2% over this period. Extremely weak productivity growth explains why the output gap has managed to contract in the face of subdued GDP growth. Sluggish capital spending has exacerbated the productivity downturn, but probably did not cause it. Chart 5 shows that productivity growth began to decelerate well before the financial crisis erupted. The slowdown has been pervasive across countries and sectors. Economists have a poor track record of predicting productivity trends. Not only did they fail to predict the productivity revival in the late 1990s, but because of data lags and subsequent revisions, they did not even know it had happened until the early 2000s. It is too early to say whether robotics and AI will yield the same sort of productivity windfall that the Internet did. My colleagues, Mark McClellan and Brian Piccioni, have cast a skeptical eye on some of the alleged revolutionary breakthroughs in both fields.1 If it turns out that the late 1990s was the exception rather than the rule, and that we are going back to the lackluster productivity performance of the 1970s, this will make life more challenging for central bankers. 3. What Is The True Level Of NAIRU? Spare capacity has diminished in most countries, but questions linger over how much slack remains. No one truly knows where NAIRU - the so-called Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment - really stands. The Fed and the Congressional Budget Office believe that NAIRU has fallen from over 6% in the late 1970s to around 4.5%-to-4.7% today (Chart 6). Chart 5Productivity Growth Slowdown ##br##Has Been Pervasive Chart 6NAIRU Is Low By Historic Standards An aging workforce has reduced frictional unemployment because older workers are less likely to switch jobs than younger ones. The internet has also made it easier for employers to find suitably qualified workers. On the flipside, globalization, automation, and the opioid crisis have likely made it difficult for a growing list of workers to hold down a job for long. Our best guess is that the U.S. economy is operating at close to full employment. This is confirmed by various employer surveys, which show that companies are struggling to find qualified workers (Chart 7). The fact that the share of people outside the labor force who want a job has fallen to pre-recession levels also suggests that labor slack is running thin (Chart 8). Chart 7U.S. Economy: Operating At ##br##Close To Full Employment Chart 8Few People Left Who Are Eager ##br##To Rejoin The Labor Force There is more slack outside the United States. Labor underutilization is still 2.5 percentage points higher in the euro area than it was in 2008. Taking Germany out of the picture, labor underutilization is nearly six points higher (Chart 9). A number of major emerging markets, most notably Brazil and Russia, also have a lot of excess cyclical unemployment. The Japanese labor market has tightened significantly in recent years, but there is probably a fair amount of hidden underemployment left, particularly in the service sector (factoid of the week: there are more police officers in Tokyo than in New York City).2 4. Where Is The Neutral Rate Of Interest? One of the most vexing questions facing central banks is how high interest rates can go before they move into restrictive territory. There are a variety of reasons for thinking that the neutral real rate of interest - the rate consistent with full employment and stable inflation - is lower today than it was in the past. Trend real GDP growth has fallen. This has reduced the need for firms to expand capacity. The shift to a capital-lite economy - where value-added increasingly takes the form of bits and bytes rather than factory output - has further reduced the need for fresh investment. Meanwhile, a reluctance to take on new debt has restrained spending. Rising inequality has shifted more wealth into the hands of people who tend to save a lot. Globally, savings must equal investment. If desired savings go up and desired investment goes down, interest rates must fall to push down the former and push up the latter (Chart 10). Chart 9Euro Area: There Is Still Labor ##br##Market Slack Outside Of Germany Chart 10Interest Rates Must Fall If Desired Savings ##br##Increase And Desired Investment Declines None of these forces are immutable, however. Investment demand appears to be picking up, as judged by capex intention surveys (Chart 11). Consumer credit is rising anew. The U.S. personal saving rate is back near an all-time low (Chart 12). A tighter labor market is likely to cause labor's share of income to rise, just like it did in the late 1990s (Chart 13). This should boost aggregate demand. An unprecedented increase in the U.S. budget deficit should help absorb much of the savings from cash-rich corporations (Chart 14). Meanwhile, savings are likely to decline over the long haul as well-paid baby boomers retire en masse. All this is causing the neutral rate to move higher. Chart 11Upswing In Global Capex Is Underway Chart 12U.S. Consumer Credit Revival Chart 13Tight Labor Market And Rising Labor ##br##Share Of Income: A Replay Of The 1990s? Chart 14Now Is The Time For Fiscal Consolidation, Not Profligacy 5. What Is The Shape Of The Phillips Curve? Central bankers assume that dwindling spare capacity will lead to higher inflation, a relationship immortalized by the so-called Phillips curve. The fact that inflation has barely risen over the past few years is an obvious challenge to this theory. It may simply be that the Phillips curve is "kinked" at very low levels - it only steepens when the economy has gone beyond full employment. The fact that it has taken this long to reach the kink could explain why inflation has not taken off sooner. The success that central banks have enjoyed in anchoring long-term inflation expectations is another reason why the Phillips curve has become flatter. Chart 15An Overheated Economy Led To ##br##Rising Inflation In The 1960s The problem is that there is no God-given reason why inflation expectations should stay well anchored. Core inflation was remarkably low and stable in the first half of the 1960s. However, the combination of low real interest rates and increased fiscal spending associated with Lyndon Johnson's Great Society programs and the Vietnam War led to a surge in inflation starting in 1966 (Chart 15). Inflation kept climbing thereafter, rising to 6% in 1970. This was three years before the first oil shock occurred, suggesting that an overheated economy, rather than OPEC, was the main inflationary culprit. Unknown Unknowns Then there are the things central bankers are not even thinking about, or even worse, the things they think are true but aren't.3 In the lead-up to the Great Recession, U.S. policymakers blithely assumed that house prices could not fall at the nationwide level. This caused them to turn a blind eye to soaring home prices and the deterioration of underwriting standards in the mortgage market. Warren Buffet once said, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." Our guess is that rising rates will expose a lot of things one would rather not see in the corporate debt market. In the latest issue of the Bank Credit Analyst, my colleague Mark McClellan estimated that the interest coverage ratio for U.S. companies would drop from 4 to 2.5 if rates increased by 100 basis points across the corporate curve. Such a move would take the coverage ratio to the lowest level in the 30-year history of our sample (Chart 16A and Chart 16B).4 Consumer staples, tech, and health care would be the most adversely affected. Chart 16AU.S. Interest Coverage Ratio ##br##Breakdown By Sector (I) Chart 16BU.S. Interest Coverage Ratio ##br##Breakdown By Sector (II) Political shocks are also very difficult for policymakers to foresee. President Trump's decision to impose steel and aluminum tariffs spooked the markets. NAFTA negotiations remain stalled and the odds are high that the U.S. will pursue trade sanctions against China for alleged intellectual property theft. That said, as we noted last week, an all-out trade war would cause equities to crater.5 Trump remains focused on the value of the stock market as a gauge of the success of his presidency. This will curb his hawkishness. Unemployment is also very low these days, which limits the attractiveness of protectionist policies. The specter of trade wars will escalate if a recession causes stocks to tumble and unemployment to rise in key midwestern swing states. Other "unknown unknowns" include another flare-up in sovereign debt markets in Europe, a hard landing in China, and a supply-induced spike in oil prices. Investment Conclusions It may be tempting to think that central banks can calibrate monetary policy as events unfold in order to keep economies on an even keel. If only it were so easy. Monetary policy affects the economy with a lag of 12-to-24 months. By the time it is clear that either more or less monetary stimulus is needed, it is often too late to act. Central bankers have to work with incomplete or inaccurate data. One of the reasons that inflation spiraled out of control in the 1970s was because the Federal Reserve systematically overstated the size of the output gap (Chart 17). This led the Fed to falsely conclude that slower growth was the result of inadequate demand rather than a deceleration in the economy's supply-side potential. It is impossible to know what mistakes central banks will make in the future, but it is almost certain that something will go awry. Central bankers, like military leaders, tend to fight the last war. They have tirelessly waged a battle against deflation over the past decade, so it is logical to conclude that they will err on the side of keeping monetary policy too loose rather than too tight. This will prolong the recovery, but it also means that economic and financial imbalances will be greater by the time the next downturn rolls around. As we discussed several weeks ago, the next recession is most likely to arrive in 2020.6 Investors should stay overweight risk assets for now, but look to move to neutral later this year and outright underweight in the first half of 2019. Bond yields will fall as the next recession approaches, but they will do so from higher levels than today. Similar to the 1970s, investors should expect inflation and bond yields to make a series of "higher highs" and "higher lows" with every boom/bust episode (Chart 18). Chart 17The Fed Continuously Overstated The ##br##Magnitude Of Economic Slack In The 1970s Chart 18A Template For The Next Decade? Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist Global Investment Strategy peterb@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see Technology Sector Strategy Special Report, "The Coming Robotics Revolution," dated May 16, 2017; The Bank Credit Analyst, "Did Amazon Kill The Phillips Curve?" dated August 31, 2017; and The Bank Credit Analyst, "The Impact Of Robots On Inflation," dated January 25, 2018. 2 "As crime dries up, Japan's police hunt for things to do," The Economist, May 18, 2017. 3 Mark Twain is often credited for saying that "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." It's a great quote, but there's only one problem: There is no evidence that he ever said it. 4 Please see The Bank Credit Analyst, "Leverage And Sensitivity To Rising Rates: The U.S. Corporate Sector," dated February 22, 2018. 5 Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "Trump's Tariffs: A Q&A," dated March 9, 2018. 6 Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "The Next Recession: Later But Deeper," dated February 23, 2018. Tactical Global Asset Allocation Recommendations Strategy & Market Trends Tactical Trades Strategic Recommendations Closed Trades
Highlights The global economic mini-cycle is set to weaken while the euro is set to grind higher. Upgrade Telecoms to overweight. Also overweight Healthcare and Airlines. Underweight Banks, Basic Materials and Energy. Overweight France, Ireland, U.K., Switzerland and Denmark. Underweight Italy, Spain, Sweden and Norway. The Eurostoxx50 will struggle to outperform the S&P500. Feature We are strong believers in Investment Reductionism, a philosophy synthesized from the Pareto Principle and Occam's Razor.1 Investment reductionism offers a liberating thesis - the incessant barrage of investment research, newsfeeds and ten thousand word commentaries is largely superfluous to the investment process. What seems like a complexity of investment choice usually reduces to getting a few over-arching decisions right. Chart of the WeekIn Quadrant 4, Overweight Domestic Defensives And Underweight International Cyclicals For equity sector and country allocation, two over-arching decisions dominate: Whether the global economic mini-cycle is set to strengthen or weaken (Chart I-2). Whether the domestic currency is set to strengthen or weaken. Chart I-2The Empirical Evidence For Credit And Economic Mini-Cycles Is Irrefutable The four permutations of these two decisions create the four quadrants of cyclical investing (Chart of the Week). Right now, European investors find themselves in quadrant four: the global economic mini-cycle is set to weaken while the euro is set to grind higher. This favours an overweight stance to defensives, especially domestic-focused defensives. Therefore today, we are upgrading Telecoms to overweight. We also recommend an underweight stance to the most cyclical sectors, especially international-focused cyclicals such as Basic Materials and Energy. Country allocation then just drops out of this sector allocation. The Global Economic Mini-Cycle Is Set To Weaken We can predict the changes of the seasons and the tides of the sea with utmost precision. How? Not because we have an ingenious leading indicator for the seasons and tides, but because we recognise that these phenomena follow perfectly regular cycles. Regular cycles create predictability. Significantly, global bank credit flows also exhibit remarkably regular cycles with half-cycle lengths averaging around eight months. Recognizing these mini-cycles is immensely powerful because, just as for the seasons and the tides, it creates predictability. Furthermore, if most investors are unaware of these cycles, the next turn will not be discounted in today's price - providing a compelling investment opportunity for those who do recognise the predictability. The empirical evidence for credit mini-cycles is irrefutable. The theoretical foundation is also rock solid, based on an economic model called the Cobweb Theory.2 This states that in any market where supply lags demand, both the quantity supplied and the price must oscillate. Given that credit supply clearly lags credit demand, the quantity of credit supplied and its price (the bond yield) must experience mini-cycles (Chart I-3). And as the quantity of credit supplied is a marginal driver of economic activity, economic activity will also experience the same regular oscillations. Today, the global 6-month credit impulse is turning from mini-upswing to mini-downswing, with all three subcomponents - the euro area, the U.S. and China - now in decline (Chart I-4). This is exactly in line with prediction. Mini half-cycles average eight months, and the latest mini-upswing started eight months ago. Chart I-3The Global Economic Mini-Cycle##br## Is Set To Weaken Chart I-4All Three Subcomponents Of The Global 6-Month ##br##Credit Impulse Are Now Declining More importantly, as we enter a mini-downswing, we can also predict that global growth is likely to experience at least a modest deceleration through the coming two to three quarters. The Euro Is Set To Grind Higher, Except Versus The Yen Chart I-5Lost In Translation Nowadays, mainstream stock markets tend to be eclectic collections of multinational companies which happen to be quoted on bourses in Frankfurt, Paris, New York, and so on. For example, BASF is not really a German chemical company, it is a global chemical company headquartered in Germany. For operational hedging, multinational companies like BASF will intentionally diversify their sales and profits across multiple major currencies, say euros and dollars. But of course, the primary stock market quotation will be in the currency of its home bourse, euros. Therefore, when the euro strengthens, the company's multi-currency profits, translated back into a stronger euro, will necessarily weaken (Chart I-5). Clearly, more domestic-focused companies like telecoms will not experience such a strong currency-translation headwind. We expect the main euro crosses to continue strengthening over the next 8 months, with the exception being the cross versus the Japanese yen. Our central thesis is that the payoff profile for a foreign exchange rate just tracks the bond yield spread. This means that when a central bank has already taken bond yields close to their lower bound, its currency possesses a highly attractive asymmetry called positive skew. In essence, as the ECB is at the realistic limit of ultra-loose policy, long-term expectations for the ECB policy rate possess an asymmetry: they cannot go significantly lower, but they could go significantly higher. Exactly the same applies to long-term expectations for the BoJ policy rate. In contrast, long-term expectations for the Fed policy rate possess full symmetry: they could go either way, lower or higher. This stark asymmetry of central bank 'degrees of freedom' favours the euro and the yen over the dollar. Which Sectors And Countries To Own And Which To Avoid? Pulling together the preceding two sections, the global economic mini-cycle is set to weaken while the euro is set to grind higher. This puts Europe in quadrant four of our four quadrant framework for cyclical investing. Unsurprisingly, the relative performance of the most cyclical sectors - Banks, Basic Materials and Energy - very closely tracks the regular mini-cycles in the global 6-month credit impulse. In a mini-downswing these cyclical sectors always underperform (Chart I-6, Chart I-7 and Chart I-8). Accordingly, underweight these three sectors on a two to three quarter horizon. Chart I-6In A Mini-Downswing, ##br##Banks Always Underperform Chart I-7In A Mini-Downswing,##br## Basic Materials Always Underperform Chart I-8In A Mini-Downswing,##br## Energy Always Underperforms Conversely, overweight the relatively defensive Healthcare sector. Also overweight the Airlines sector. Airlines' performance is a mirror-image of the oil price cycle, given that aviation fuel comprises the sector's main variable cost. Furthermore, as aviation fuel is priced in dollars, it also insulates European Airlines against a strengthening euro. Today, we are also upgrading the Telecoms sector to overweight given its relative non-cyclicality (Chart I-9), its domestic-focus, and the excessively negative groupthink towards it (Chart I-10). Chart I-9In A Mini-Downswing, ##br##Telecoms Always Outperform Chart I-10Telecoms Are Due ##br##A Trend Reversal In summary: Overweight: Healthcare, Telecoms, and Airlines Underweight: Banks, Basic Materials and Energy Then to arrive at a country allocation, just combine the cyclical view on the major sectors with the country sector skews in Box 1. The result is the following unchanged European equity market allocation. Overweight: France, Ireland, U.K., Switzerland and Denmark Neutral: Germany and Netherlands Underweight: Italy, Spain, Sweden and Norway Lastly, what is the prognosis for the Eurostoxx50 relative to the S&P500? Essentially, this reduces to a battle between the multinational cyclicals - especially banks - that dominate euro area bourses and the multinational technology giants that dominate the U.S. stock market. With the global economic mini-cycle set to weaken and the euro set to grind higher, the Eurostoxx50 will struggle to outperform the S&P500. Box 1: The Vital Few Sector Skews That Drive Country Relative Performance For major equity indexes in the euro area, the dominant sector skews that drive relative performance are as follows: Germany (DAX) is overweight Chemicals, underweight Banks. France (CAC) is underweight Banks and Basic Materials. Italy (MIB) is overweight Banks. Spain (IBEX) is overweight Banks. Netherlands (AEX) is overweight Technology, underweight Banks. Ireland (ISEQ) is overweight Airlines (Ryanair) which is, in effect, underweight Energy. And for major equity indexes outside the euro area: The U.K. (FTSE100) is effectively underweight the pound. Switzerland (SMI) is overweight Healthcare, underweight Energy. Sweden (OMX) is overweight Industrials. Denmark (OMX20) is overweight Healthcare and Industrials. Norway (OBX) is overweight Energy. The U.S. (S&P500) is overweight Technology, underweight Banks. Dhaval Joshi, Senior Vice President Chief European Investment Strategist dhaval@bcaresearch.com 1 The Pareto Principle, often known as the 80-20 rule, says that 80% of effects come from just 20% of causes. Occam's Razor says that when there are many competing explanations for the same effect, the simplest explanation is usually the best. 2 Please see the European Investment Strategy Special Report 'The Cobweb Theory And Market Cycles' published on January 11, 2018 and available at eis.bcaresearch.com. Fractal Trading Model* This week's recommended trade is to short the Helsinki OMX versus the Eurostoxx600. Apply a profit target of 3% with a symmetrical stop-loss. In other trades, we are pleased to report that short Japanese Energy versus the market achieved its 8% profit target at which it was closed. This leaves four open positions. For any investment, excessive trend following and groupthink can reach a natural point of instability, at which point the established trend is highly likely to break down with or without an external catalyst. An early warning sign is the investment's fractal dimension approaching its natural lower bound. Encouragingly, this trigger has consistently identified countertrend moves of various magnitudes across all asset classes. Chart 11 The post-June 9, 2016 fractal trading model rules are: When the fractal dimension approaches the lower limit after an investment has been in an established trend it is a potential trigger for a liquidity-triggered trend reversal. Therefore, open a countertrend position. The profit target is a one-third reversal of the preceding 13-week move. Apply a symmetrical stop-loss. Close the position at the profit target or stop-loss. Otherwise close the position after 13 weeks. Use the position size multiple to control risk. The position size will be smaller for more risky positions. * For more details please see the European Investment Strategy Special Report "Fractals, Liquidity & A Trading Model," dated December 11, 2014, available at eis.bcaresearch.com Fractal Trading Model Recommendations Equities Bond & Interest Rates Currency & Other Positions Closed Fractal Trades Trades Closed Trades Asset Performance Currency & Bond Equity Sector Country Equity Indicators Bond Yields Chart II-1Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-2Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-3Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-4Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Interest Rate Chart II-5Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-6Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-7Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-8Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations
Highlights Bond Strategy: The investment backdrop is broadly evolving the way that we forecasted in our 2018 Outlook, thus we continue to maintain our core strategic recommendations. Maintain below-benchmark portfolio duration and overweight global corporate debt versus government bonds (focused on the U.S.). Look to reverse that positioning sometime during the latter half of 2018 after global inflation increases and central banks tighten policy more aggressively. Japan Corporates: Japanese companies are in excellent financial shape, according to our new Japan Corporate Health Monitor. Although softening Japanese growth and a firming yen may prevent an outperformance of Japanese corporate debt in the coming months. Feature "I love it when a plan comes together." - Hannibal Smith, Leader of The A-Team Many investors likely came down with serious case of a sore neck last week, given the head-turning headlines that came out: Chart 1A Pause In The 'Inflation Scare' U.S. President Donald Trump announcing a blanket tariff on metals imports, then exempting some important countries (Canada, Mexico, Australia) only days later. Trump agreeing to an unprecedented meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the nuclear issue, only to have the White House press secretary later announce that no meeting would take place without North Korean "concessions". The European Central Bank (ECB) hawkishly altering its forward guidance to markets at the March monetary policy meeting, but then having that immediately followed by dovish comments from ECB President Mario Draghi. The strong headline number on the February U.S. employment report blowing away expectations, but the soft readings on wages suggesting that the Fed will not have to move more aggressively on rate hikes. For bond markets in particular, the ECB announcement and the U.S. Payrolls report were most important. Investors had been growing worried about a more hawkish monetary policy shift in Europe or the U.S. This was especially true in the U.S. after the previous set of employment data was released in early February showing a pickup in wage inflation that could force the Fed to shift to a more hawkish stance. That created a spike in Treasury yields and the VIX and a full-blown equity market correction. Since then, inflation expectations have eased a bit and market pricing of future Fed and ECB moves has stabilized, helping to bring down volatility and supporting some recovery in global equity markets (Chart 1). With all of these "tape bombs" hitting the news wires, investors can be forgiven for re-thinking their medium-term investment strategy in light of the changing events. We think it is more productive to check if the initial expectations on which that strategy was based still make sense. On that note, the developments seen so far this year fit right in with the key themes we outlined in our 2018 Outlook, which we will review in this Weekly Report. The Critical Points From Our Outlook Still Hold Up In a pair of reports published last December, we translated BCA's overall 2018 Outlook into broad investment themes (and strategic implications) for global fixed income markets. We repeat those themes below, with our updated assessment on where we currently stand. Theme #1: A more bearish backdrop for bonds, led by the U.S.: Faster global growth, with rebounding inflation expectations, will trigger tighter overall global monetary policy. This will be led by Fed rate hikes and, later in 2018, ECB tapering. Global bond yields will rise in response, primarily due to higher inflation expectations. ASSESSMENT: UNFOLDING AS PLANNED, BUT WATCH INFLATION EXPECTATIONS. Economic growth is still broadly expanding at a solid pace, as evidenced by the elevated levels of the OECD leading economic indicator and our global manufacturing PMI (Chart 2). The U.S. is clearly exhibiting the strongest growth momentum looking at the individual country PMIs (bottom panel), while there is a more mixed picture in the most recent readings in other countries and regions. Importantly, all of the manufacturing PMIs remain well above the 50 line indicating expanding economic activity. Last week's U.S. Payrolls report for February showed that great American job creation machine can still produce outsized employment gains with only moderate wage inflation pressures, even in an economy that appears to be at "full employment". The +313k increase in jobs, which included upward revisions to both of the previous two months of a combined +54k, generated no change in the U.S. unemployment rate which stayed unchanged at 4.1% with the labor force participation rate increasing modestly (Chart 3). Chart 2U.S. Growth Leading The Way Chart 3The Fed Can Still Hike Rates Only 'Gradually' The wage data was perhaps the most important part of the report, given that the spike in global market volatility seen last month came on the heels of an upside surprise in U.S. average hourly earnings (AHE) for January. There was no follow through of that acceleration in February, with the year-over-year growth rate of AHE slowing back to 2.6% from 2.9%, reversing the previous month's increase (middle panel). The immediate implication is that the Fed does not have to start raising rates faster or by more than planned. That pullback in U.S. wage growth, combined with the continued sluggishness of inflation in the other developed economies and the sideways price action seen in global oil markets, does suggest that inflation expectations may struggle to be the main driver of higher global bond yields in the near term. Overall nominal bond yields are unlikely to decline, however, as real yields are slowly rising in response to faster global growth and markets pricing in tighter monetary policy in response (Chart 4). Chart 4Real Yields Rising Now,##BR##Inflation Expectations Will Rise Again Later We have not seen enough evidence to cause us to change our view on inflation expectations moving higher over the course of 2018, particularly with BCA's commodity strategists now expecting oil prices to trade between $70-$80/bbl in the latter half of 2018.1 One final point: it is far too soon to determine if the protectionist trade leanings of President Trump will alter the current trajectory of global growth and interest rates. The implication is that investors should not change their overall planned investment strategy for this year at this juncture. Theme #2: Growth & policy divergences will create cross-market bond investment opportunities: Global growth in 2018 will become less synchronized compared to 2016 & 2017, as will individual country monetary policies. Government bonds in the U.S. and Canada, where rate hikes will happen, will underperform, while bonds in the U.K. and Australia, where rates will likely be held steady, will outperform. ASSESSMENT: UNFOLDING AS PLANNED. As shown in Chart 2, the big coordinated upward move in global growth seen in 2017 is already starting to become less synchronized in 2018. Recent readings on euro area growth have softened a bit while, more worryingly, a growing list of Japanese data is slowing. U.K. data remains mixed, while the Canadian economy is showing few signs of cooling off. China's growth remains critical for so many countries, including Australia, but so far the Chinese data is showing only some moderation off of last year's pace. Net-net, the data seen so far this year is playing out according to our 2018 Themes - better in the U.S. and Canada, softer in the U.K. and Australia. We are sticking to our view that the rate hikes currently discounted by markets in the U.S. and Canada will be delivered, but that there will be little-to-no monetary tightening in the U.K. and Australia (Chart 5). Theme #3: The most dovish central banks will be forced to turn less dovish: The ECB and Bank of Japan (BoJ) will both slow the pace of their asset purchases in 2018, in response to strong domestic economies and rising inflation. This will lead to bear-steepening of yield curves in Europe, mostly in the latter half of 2018. The BoJ could raise its target on JGB yields, but only modestly, in response to an overall higher level of global bond yields. ASSESSMENT: UNFOLDING AS PLANNED, ALTHOUGH WE NOW EXPECT NO BoJ MOVE TO TAKE PLACE THIS YEAR. Both central banks have already dialed back to pace of the asset purchases in recent months. This is in addition to the Fed beginning its own process of reducing its balance sheet by not rolling over maturing bonds in its portfolio. Growth of the combined balance sheet of the "G-4" central banks (the Fed, ECB, BoJ and Bank of England) has been slowing steadily as a result (Chart 6). The ECB continues to contribute the greatest share of that aggregate "G-4" liquidity expansion, although that is projected to slow over the balance of 2018 as the ECB moves towards a full tapering of its bond buying program by the end of the year (top panel). Chart 5Not Every Central Bank##BR##Will Deliver What's Priced Chart 6Risk Assets Are##BR##Exposed To ECB Tapering Barring a sudden sharp downturn in the euro area economy, the ECB is still on track for that taper. We have been expecting a signaling of the taper sometime in the summer, likely after the ECB gains even greater confidence that its inflation target can be reached within its typical two-year forecasting horizon. That story will not be repeated in Japan, however, where core inflation is still struggling to stay much above 0% and economic data is softening. We see very little chance that the BoJ will make any alterations of its current policy settings - with negative deposit rates and a target of 0% on the 10-year JGB yield - this year, as we discussed in a recent Special Report.2 We continue to expect a diminishing liquidity tailwind for global risk assets over the rest of 2018 (bottom two panels). Theme #4: The low market volatility backdrop will end through higher bond volatility: Incremental tightening by central banks, in response to faster inflation, will raise the volatility of global interest rates. This will eventually weigh on global growth expectations over the course of 2018, and create a more volatile backdrop for risk assets in the latter half of the year. ASSESSMENT: UNFOLDING AS PLANNED. We saw a sneak preview of how this theme would play out during that volatility spike at the beginning of February, triggered by only a brief blip up higher in U.S. wage inflation. With a more sustained increase in realized global inflation likely to develop within the next 3-6 months, a return to that world of high volatility is still set to unfold in the latter half of 2018, in our view. After reviewing our four investment themes for 2018 in light of the latest news, we conclude that the themes are largely playing out. Therefore, we will continue to stick with the investment strategy conclusions for this year that were derived from those themes (Table 1):3 Table 1A Pro-Risk Recommended Portfolio In H1/2018, Looking To Get Defensive Later In The Year 2018 Model Bond Portfolio Positioning: Target a moderate level of portfolio risk, with below-benchmark duration and overweights on corporate credit versus government debt. These allocations will shift later in the year as central banks shift to a more restrictive monetary policy stance and growth expectations for 2018 become more uncertain. Chart 7Tracking Our Recommendations 2018 Country Allocations: Maintain underweight positions in the U.S., Canada and the Euro Area, keeping a moderate overweight in low-beta Japan, and add small overweights in the U.K. and Australia (where rate hikes are unlikely). The year-to-date performance of the main elements of our model bond portfolio are shown in Chart 7. All returns are shown on a currency-hedged basis in U.S. dollars. Our country underweights are shown in the top panel, our country overweights in the 2nd panel, our credit overweights in the 3rd panel and our credit underweights in the bottom panel. The broad conclusion is that our best performing underweight is the U.S. and best performing overweight is Japan. All other country allocations are essentially flat on the year (in currency-hedged terms). Our call to overweight corporate debt vs. government debt, focused on the U.S., has performed well, but mostly through our overweight stance on U.S. high-yield. Bottom Line: The investment backdrop is broadly evolving the way that we forecasted in our 2018 Outlook, thus we continue to maintain our core strategic recommendations. Maintain below-benchmark portfolio duration and overweight global corporate debt versus government bonds (focused on the U.S.). Look to reverse that positioning sometime during the latter half of 2018 after global inflation increases and central banks tighten policy more aggressively. Introducing The Japan Corporate Health Monitor Japan's relatively small corporate bond market has not provided much excitement for non-Japanese investors over the years. Japanese companies have always been highly cautious when managing leverage on their balance sheets, and have traditionally relied heavily on bank loans, rather than bond issuance, for debt financing. The result is a corporate bond market with far fewer defaults and downgrades compared to other developed economies, with much lower yields and spreads as well. Due to its small size, poor liquidity and low yields/spreads, we have not paid much attention to Japanese corporate debt in the past. Thus, we don't have the same kinds of indicators available to us for Japanese corporate bond analysis as we have in the U.S., euro area or U.K. One such indicator is the Corporate Health Monitor (CHM) to assess the financial health of corporate issuers.4 We are changing that this week by adding a Japan CHM to our global CHM suite of indicators. In other countries, we have both top-down and bottom-up versions of the CHM. The former uses GDP-level data on income statements and balance sheets to determine the individual ratios that go into the CHM (a description of the ratios is shown in Table 2), while the latter uses actual reported financial data at the individual firm level which is aggregated into the CHM. Table 2Definitions Of Ratios##BR##That Go Into The CHM Consistent and timely data availability is an issue for building a top-down CHM, as there is no one source of top-down data on the corporate sector. Some data is available from the BoJ or the Ministry of Finance, or even from international research groups like the OECD, but not all are presented using a consistent methodology. Some data is only available on an annual basis, which significantly diminishes the usefulness of a top-down CHM as a timely indicator for bond investment. Thus, we focused our efforts on only building a bottom-up version of a Japan CHM, using publically available financial information released with higher frequency (quarterly). We focused on non-financial companies (as we do in the CHMs for other countries) and exclude non-Japanese issuers of yen-denominated corporate bonds. In the end, we used data on 43 companies for our bottom-up CHM. By way of comparison, there are only 36 individual issuers in the Bloomberg Barclays Japan Corporate Bond Index that fit the same description of non-financial, non-foreign issuers, highlighting the relatively tiny size of the Japanese corporate bond market. Our new Japan bottom-up CHM is presented in Chart 8. The overall conclusions are the following: Japanese corporate health is in overall excellent shape, with the CHM being in the "improving health" zone for the full decade since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Corporate leverage has steadily declined since 2012, mirroring the rise in company profits and cash balances over the same period. Return on capital is currently back to the pre-2008 highs just below 6%, although operating margins remain two full percentage points below the pre-2008 highs. Interest coverage and the liquidity ratio are both at the highest levels since the mid-2000s, while debt coverage is steadily improving. The overall reading from the CHM is one of solid Japanese creditworthiness and low downgrade and default risks. It is no surprise, then, that corporate bond spreads have traded in a far narrower range than seen in other countries. In Chart 9, we present the yield, spread, return and duration data for the Bloomberg Barclays Japanese Corporate Bond Index. We also show similar data for the Japanese Government Bond Index for comparison. Japanese corporates have a much lower index duration than that of governments, which reflects the greater concentration of corporate issuance at shorter maturities. Chart 8The Japan Corporate Health Monitor Chart 9The Details Of Japan Corporate Bond Index Japanese corporates currently trade at a relatively modest spread of 36bps over Japanese government debt, although that spread only reached a high of just over 100bps during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis - a much lower spread compared to U.S. and European debt of similar credit quality. That is likely a combination of many factors, including the small size of the Japanese corporate market and the relatively smaller level of interest rate volatility in Japan versus other countries. Given the dearth of available bond alternatives with a positive yield in Japan, the "stretch for yield" dynamic has created a demand/supply balance that is very favorable for valuations - especially given the strong health of Japanese issuers. Chart 10Japan Corporates Do Not Like A Rising Yen It remains to be seen how the market will respond to a future economic slowdown in Japan, which may be starting to unfold given the recent string of sluggish data. On that note, the performance of the Japanese yen bears watching, as the currency has a positive correlation to Japanese corporate spreads (Chart 10). The linkage there could be a typical one of risk-aversion, where the yen goes up as risky assets selloff. Or it could be linked to growth expectations, where markets begin to price in the impact on Japanese growth and corporate profits from a stronger currency. Given our view that the BoJ is highly unlikely to make any changes to its monetary policy settings this year, the latest bout of yen strength may not last for much longer. For now, given the link between the yen and Japanese credit spreads, we would advise looking for signs that the yen is rolling over before considering any allocations to Japanese corporate debt. Bottom Line: Japanese companies are in excellent financial shape, according to our new Japan Corporate Health Monitor. Although softening Japanese growth and a firming yen may prevent an outperformance of Japanese corporate debt in the coming months. Robert Robis, Senior Vice President Global Fixed Income Strategy rrobis@bcaresearch.com Ray Park, Research Analyst Ray@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see BCA Commodity & Energy Strategy Weekly Report, "OPEC 2.0 Getting Comfortable With Higher Prices", dated February 22nd 2018, available at ces.bcaresearch.com. 2 Please see BCA Global Fixed Income Strategy Special Report, "What Would It Take For The Bank Of Japan To Raise Its Yield Target?", dated February 13th 2018, available at gfis.bcareseach.com. 3 Please see BCA Global Fixed Income Strategy Weekly Report, "Our Model Bond Portfolio In 2018: A Tale Of Two Halves", dated December 19th 2017, available at gfis.bcaresearch.com. 4 For a summary of all of our individual country CHMs, including a description of the methodology, please see the BCA Global Fixed Income Strategy Weekly Report, "BCA Corporate Health Monitor Chartbook: No Improvement Despite A Strong Economy", dated November 21st 2017, available at gfis.bcaresearch.com. Recommendations The GFIS Recommended Portfolio Vs. The Custom Benchmark Index Duration Regional Allocation Spread Product Tactical Trades Yields & Returns Global Bond Yields Historical Returns
Highlights BCA's view is that while a major trade war is unlikely, trade tensions will persist. The Fed, not protectionism, will end the cycle. There have been five episodes in the past 35 years when global growth surged and fiscal, monetary and regulatory policy were all aligned to boost the U.S. economy. The March Beige Book keeps the Fed on track to hike four times this year. Feature The Trump Administration's announcement last week to slap hefty tariffs on steel and aluminum runs the risk of provoking a "tit-for-tat" trade war. This proposed levy follows a similar move earlier this year to impose tariffs on washers and solar panels. The EU has retaliated with a threat to introduce tariffs on Harley Davidson motorcycles and Levi's jeans. Even if a trade war develops, our Global Investment Strategy team notes1 that the U.S. would suffer less in a trade war than other nations, and that higher tariffs may lead to more domestic demand, a more aggressive Fed and a stronger dollar. Certainly, the tariff issue does not signal the end of the U.S. economic expansion or equity bull market. BCA's view is that while a major trade war is unlikely, trade tensions will persist. Our Geopolitical Strategy service states2 that investors should closely monitor bellwether factors for trade policies, including Trump's position on NAFTA, exemptions granted on the steel and aluminum tariffs to countries (such as Mexico and Canada) and most importantly, the treatment of intellectual property trade with China. Bottom Line: The end of the equity bull market will probably be due to an overheated U.S. economy and rising financial imbalances, and not escalating trade protectionism. Investors should remain overweight global equities for now, but look to pare back exposure later this year. Policy Panacea The backdrop for U.S. economic growth remains solid. Consensus global GDP projections for 2018 and 2019 have perked up, in contrast with prior years when forecasters issued relentless lower GDP estimates (Chart 1). Moreover, global exports growth is in a persistent uptrend since the earlier part of 2016 (Chart 2). Chart 1U.S. & Global Growth Expectations Are Still Accelerating The surge in global growth occurs even as China's economy is poised to slow. Among the components of BCA's Li Keqiang Leading Indicator (an index designed to lead turning points in the Li Keqiang), all six series are in a downtrend, and five fell in January (the growth in M2 was the exception).3 Although China's economy is decelerating, BCA's view is that a repeat of the late 2015/early 2016 shock is unlikely (Chart 3). Chart 2Global Exports##BR##Are Booming... Chart 3Our Composite LKI Indicator Suggests##BR##A Benign Slowdown In Growth In China The U.S. economy and financial markets will benefit from the uptick in global growth, a large dose of fiscal policy, still accommodative monetary policy, and a decline in regulation. Table 1 and Chart 4 show that there have been four other junctures in the past 35 years when these factors all pulled in the same direction to boost the U.S. economy. The current episode of synchronized policy commenced in January 2016. All four previous periods occurred closer to the start and not the end of a business cycle; BCA's stance is that the U.S. economy is in the late stages of an economic expansion that began in 2009. These phases lasted, on average, for just under two years. The current phase is entering its third year. The longest was in the early 2000s (2002-2004), while the shortest was a 14-month interval in the first year of the 1991-2001 economic expansion. Three of the prior four periods ended as fiscal policy turned restrictive. In the early 1980s' chapter, a reversal in global IP signaled the end of the growth sweet spot. Performance Of U.S. Financial Assets, Gold, Oil And Earnings When Global Growth Is Increasing Alongside Stimulative Monetary, Fiscal And Regulatory Policy .... Chart 4Global Growth, Fiscal, Monetary And Regulatory Policy##BR##All Pulling In The Same Direction Not surprisingly, risk assets perform well during these "tailwind" points (Table 1 again and Chart 5). The S&P 500 rose in the previous four periods and again in the current one. However, BCA's stock-to-bond ratio fell in the early 1990s and early 2000s. Credit tends to outperform Treasuries when monetary, fiscal and regulatory policy are synchronized, and small caps outperform large. This is the case in the current episode that began in January 2016. Gold and oil also perform well when global growth is surging, fiscal and monetary policy is stimulative and regulations are on the wane. However, on average, the dollar falls during these intervals as demonstrated in the early 2000s and early 2010s. S&P 500 earnings growth is solid and well above average during these phases. Chart 5U.S. Risk Assets In Periods Of Strong Global Growth And Synchronized Policy Push Table 2 shows that U.S. risk assets tend to struggle in the year after these legs end, but the economy keeps flourishing. Stocks underperformed bonds a year after the end of two of the four periods, but none of those periods coincided with a recession. Investment-grade and high-yield credit underperforms Treasuries in the ensuing 12 months, while small caps struggle to keep up with large. Gold performs well in three of the four periods, but oil posts a mixed performance. The dollar rises and S&P 500 earnings per share increase in the year after stretches of synchronous policy, but at a much slower pace than when the stimulative fiscal policy, deregulation and easy monetary policy are all in place. Table 2... What Happens In The 12 Months After These Episodes End... Tighter Fed policy will end the current era of pro-growth policies. BCA's stance is that the Fed will raise rates four times this year and another three or four times next year, pushing monetary policy into restrictive territory. U.S. fiscal policy will likely add to growth into the next year, thanks to tax cuts and the lifting of spending caps, and Trump will continue to look for deregulation opportunities. Bottom Line: Fed tightening will end the latest era of deregulation, easy monetary policy and stimulative fiscal policy, but not until early next year. Until then, a favorable backdrop will persist for stocks over bonds, credit, S&P 500 earnings and oil. Stay long stocks and credit, and underweight duration. This forecast assumes that the trade spat does not degenerate into a trade war. If that occurs, we would recommend reducing our overweight to risk assets sooner than early next year. Beige Book: More Tailwinds Fed Chair Powell's February 27 testimony to Congress noted that "some of the headwinds the U.S. economy faced in previous years have turned into tailwinds."4 The Beige Book released on March 7 highlights many of those tailwinds, keeps the Fed on track to boost rates at least three times this year and highlights the impact of the tax bill on the economy. BCA's quantitative approach5 to the Beige Book's qualitative data points to underlying strength in GDP and a tighter labor market. Furthermore, the disconnect between the Beige Book's view of inflation and the market's stance has eased. Moreover, references to a stronger dollar have disappeared from the Beige Book and business uncertainty is significantly reduced, reflecting the tax cut bill and Trump's assault on regulation. The latest Beige Book ran from mid-January to February 26 and, therefore, did not capture the business community's reaction to the tariff announcement in early March. Chart 6, panel 1 shows that at 67% in March, BCA's Beige Book Monitor stayed near its cycle highs, which reconfirms that the underlying economy was upbeat in early 2018. The number of 'weak' words in the Beige Book returned to near four-year lows after ticking higher in the wake of last summer's hurricanes. Moreover, there were 15 mentions of the tax bill in the March Beige Book, up from 12 in January and only 3 in November 2017 (not shown). The tax bill was cast in a positive light in 87% of the remarks in March versus 75% in January. In November, the references to either the tax bill (or tax reform) cited the consequent uncertainty as a constraint on growth. Chart 6Latest Beige Book Supports##BR##The Fed's View On Rates, Inflation And Economy Based on the minimal references to a robust dollar in the past six Beige Books, the greenback should not be an issue in Q4 2017 or Q1 2018. This sharply contrasts with 2015 and early 2016 when there were surges in Beige Book mentions (Chart 6, panel 4). The last time that six consecutive Beige Books had so few remarks about a strong dollar was in late 2014. BCA's stance is that the dollar will move modestly higher in 2018. Business uncertainty over government policy (fiscal, regulatory and health) multiplied in the past few Beige Books as Congress debated the tax bill. However, in general, these comments have dropped since Trump took office in early 2017. The implication is that the business community is correctly focused on policy and not politics in D.C. (Chart 6, panel 5). However, the controversy associated with the tariffs on steel and aluminum will add to business unease in the coming months unless Trump reverses his position. The disagreement between the Fed and the market on inflation narrowed in the March edition of the Beige Book (Chart 6, panel 3). The number of inflation words in the Beige Book rose to an 8 month high in March, reflecting the abrupt change in sentiment on inflation in early 2018 both in the business community and the market. In the past year, inflation words in the Beige Book climbed as the readings on CPI and PCE rolled over. In the past, increased references to inflation have led measured inflation by a few months, suggesting that the CPI and core PCE may soon turn up. Bottom Line: The March Beige Book supports BCA's view that the U.S. economy is poised to expand above its long-term potential in the first half of 2018. Moreover, the elevated soundings on inflation in the Beige Book in recent years have again proved prescience, as price measures are poised to turn higher. While the first few Beige Books in 2018 showed that the business and financial communities welcomed tax cut legislation, the next edition will likely reflect elevated concern over the nation's trade policies. John Canally, CFA, Senior Vice President U.S. Investment Strategy johnc@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report "Trump's Tariffs: A Q&A", published March 9, 2018. Available at gis.bcaresearch.com. 2 Please see BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy Client Note "Market Reprices Odds Of A Global Trade War", published March 6, 2018. Available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 3 Please see BCA Research's China Investment Strategy Weekly Report "China And The Risk Of Escalation", published March 7, 2018. Available at cis.bcaresearch.com. 4 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20180226a.htm 5 Please see BCA Research's U.S. Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "The Great Debate Continues," published April 17, 2017. Available at usis.bcaresearch.com.
Highlights Policymakers & Volatility: The major developed market central banks (Fed, ECB, BoJ), facing low unemployment rates and slowly rising inflation, are less able to respond to volatility spikes with more dovish monetary policies compared to past years. Investors should get used to a structurally higher level of volatility, likely for the remainder of the current business cycle upturn. Higher Volatilty & Spread Product: The relative risk-adjusted attractiveness of global spread product looks different when using a higher level of yield volatility, particularly when hedged into U.S. dollars. Continue to favor U.S. investment grade and high yield corporate debt over euro area and emerging market equivalents, even with the more elevated volatility backdrop. Feature If there is one lesson to be learned from recent events, it is that global policymakers can no longer be trusted to always make the most market-friendly decisions. Central bankers in most countries have shifted from solely supporting growth to fighting inflation pressures. The White House is now willing to risk a disruptive trade war to try and "correct" the large U.S. trade deficit, rather than focusing on stimulating growth solely through fiscal policy. Even geopolitical headlines have become more worrisome for investors, with Russia announcing new nuclear capabilities, China appointing a "president for life", the U.K. government remaining vague on the details of its Brexit negotiating stance and Italy's elections producing a hung parliament with anti-establishment parties outperforming expectations. The idea that central bankers have been explicitly putting a floor under risk assets, by focusing so much on financial conditions as a critical input into their economic and inflation forecasts, has become very entrenched among investors. The implication is that if risky assets sell off, central banks will shift to a more dovish stance, thus causing interest rate expectations to shift lower which eventually causes risk assets to rebound and financial conditions to ease. This has been most evident in the U.S., where a belief in the "Fed Put" - the idea that the Fed has implicitly sold investors a put option on equities by responding dovishly to market selloffs - goes all the way back to the Greenspan era. In the U.S., however, there is now greater uncertainty that a "Powell Put" even exists - or at least one as valuable as the "Yellen Put" and "Bernanke Put" before it. In other words, it may now take a much larger decline in risk assets to cause the Fed to question its economic forecasts enough to change them. New Fed Chairman Jay Powell said as much in his first appearance before the U.S. Congress last week, where he noted that the recent equity market turbulence was not "weighing heavily" on the Fed's outlook. In fact, Powell talked up a very bullish view on the U.S. economy, which markets took as a sign that the Fed could hike rates four times in 2018 - more than the three hikes currently embedded in the Fed's projections. A similar dynamic is playing out in Europe and Japan, where the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) have been more vocal about the potential end of their respective asset purchase programs given the underlying strength of the euro area and Japanese economies. The belief in a "Draghi Put" or "Kuroda Put" is also strong, but is starting to wane. Central Bankers As Options Traders Chart 1A Smaller Response To Higher Volatility One way to see this changing backdrop is to look at the response of monetary policy expectations to increases in market volatility. During 2017, there were a few small flare-ups of equity market volatility in the U.S., euro area and Japan. In each of those episodes, interest rate markets were quick to price in easier monetary policy through a lower projected level of the funds rate in the U.S. or by pushing out the timing of the eventual first rate hike in Europe and Japan (Chart 1). The story is much different in 2018, where volatility has soared higher but there has been little change to the expected path of interest rates. Markets now understand that inflation-fighting central banks, who strongly believe in the Phillips Curve, now have to focus more on inflation than asset prices with unemployment rates at or below full employment levels. Using the language of options markets, the "strike price" on the put options allegedly sold by central bankers is now much lower. The implication is that bouts of market turbulence cannot generate lasting decreases in government bond yields that can eventually restore calm to financial assets. In other words, policymakers are now implicitly, but not intentionally, putting a floor under volatility rather than asset prices. This has made the investment backdrop much more challenging in 2018, as both absolute market returns and, especially, risk-adjusted returns will be far lower than investors have enjoyed over the past couple of years. This is one of the key themes that we outlined in our 2018 Outlook.1 It will take signs that more volatile markets are damaging economic growth and inflation expectations for this new dynamic to change. Yet there is little sign of that happening, at least among the "Big 3" central banks. The Federal Reserve In the U.S., economic data continues to print strongly. The February ISM manufacturing Index hit a 13-year high (Chart 2, top panel), with the export index hitting the highest level since 1988! The Conference Board index of consumer confidence hit the highest level since 2000 (2nd panel), while the Board's index of leading indicators continues to accelerate (3rd panel). The ISM new orders index remains at elevated levels that suggest that the latest upturn in capital spending should continue (bottom panel). Meanwhile, U.S. inflation gauges continue to grind slowly higher. The 3-month annualized growth rate of the core PCE deflator rose to 2.1% in January - above the Fed's 2% target - while the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid index is now at a 6-year high (Chart 3). Inflation expectations from the TIPS market have recently stalled below levels that we deem consistent with the Fed's inflation objective (between 2.3% and 2.5% on both the 10-year TIPS breakeven and the 5-year TIPS breakeven, 5-years forward), but they continue to trend in the direction of the Fed's target. If the wage numbers in this Friday's February Payrolls report build on the breakout seen in the January data, then breakevens should begin to climb higher once again and would all but ensure that another Fed rate hike will occur later this month. Chart 2Fed Chair Powell Is Right##BR##To Be Optimistic On U.S. Growth Chart 3U.S. Inflation Now Moving##BR##Towards The Fed Target The ECB Chart 4Will The ECB Pull Forward Its Projections? Turning to the euro area, economic data has begun to dip lower in recent readings for cyclical indicators like the manufacturing PMI, which complicates the story for the ECB heading into this Thursday's policy meeting. We continue to expect any decision on a tapering of the ECB's asset purchase program to not take place until the summer. However, some minor changes to its forward guidance, like removing language suggesting that asset purchases could be increased if necessary, could happen this week. The more meaningful signal will come from the new set of ECB economic forecasts. Core euro area HICP inflation is not projected to return close to the ECB's 2% target until 2020, and if that timetable is pulled forward in the new forecasts, that would give the ECB a credible reason to begin signaling a taper later this year. With full euro area unemployment hitting an 8-year low of 8.6% in January - dipping below the OECD full employment NAIRU estimate of 8.7% - the ECB could raise its projections for both wage growth and core inflation (Chart 4). With our own core HICP diffusion index showing a sharp increase in January, the risk of future upside surprises in euro area realized inflation has increased. Yet core inflation is still only 1.0% - a long way from the ECB's 2% target. This is already reflected in measures of inflation expectations like CPI swap forwards, which remain between 50-75bps below the levels that prevailed the last time euro area core inflation was around 2% (bottom two panels). This suggest further upside for euro area bond yields if core inflation does start to print higher later this year. For now, the ECB is unlikely to make any earth-shattering changes to its monetary policy this week, but should signal another small incremental step towards a full-blown taper later in 2018. The BoJ BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda threw a bit of a surprise at the markets last week in his testimony before the Japanese parliament following his reappointment as the head of the central bank. In response to a question on when the BoJ could consider beginning to exit its current Yield Curve Control (YCC) program, Kuroda stated that it could happen in fiscal year 2019 if the BoJ's inflation projections are realized. The media headlines took that as a sign that the BoJ was starting to change its forward guidance about its monetary policy, but that is an overreaction, in our view. Chart 5The Yen Leads The BoJ, Not Vice Versa Realized inflation remains well below the BoJ's target, with headline CPI inflation hitting 1.3% and 0.4%, respectively, in January (Chart 5). Even given the continued strength of the Japanese economy, with the unemployment rate now sitting at a 29-year low of 2.4%, inflation will have no realistic shot of reaching the BoJ 2% target without a weaker Japanese yen. The markets understand that dynamic, as our Japan months-to-hike measure - measuring the time until the first 25bps rate hike is priced into the Overnight Index Swap curve - has recently drifted up from 38 months to 47 months alongside the current appreciation of the yen (bottom panel). The BoJ remains the one major central bank that can still talk dovishly because inflation remains so low. Yet investors are aware that the BoJ is having greater difficulty operationally executing its asset purchase program, given its huge ownership share of Japanese government bonds and equity ETFs. So, like the Fed and the ECB, the BoJ's ability to credible respond in a dovish fashion to rising market turbulence - manifested through a rising yen - is severely hamstrung. Bottom Line: The major developed market central banks (Fed, ECB, BoJ), facing low unemployment rates and slowly rising inflation, are less able to respond to volatility spikes with more dovish monetary policies compared to past years. Investors should get used to a structurally higher level of volatility, likely for the remainder of the current business cycle upturn. What A Higher Volatility Regime Means For Global Spread Product If policymakers are now unable to take actions that can restore the low volatility regime seen last year, then this has implications for the relative attractiveness of global fixed income spread product. One way to see is this is to look at the ranking of volatility-adjusted yields for various global spread sectors. We present that in Table 1, where we take the currency-hedged yields for spread sectors and rank them according to two metrics: a) the outright hedged yield and b) the hedged yield relative to its trailing yield volatility.2 The sector yields are then re-ranked using the average ranking of those two metrics. We present the table with yields hedged into the four major developed market currencies (U.S. dollar, euro, yen and British pound). The level of those yields, shown against credit ratings, are graphically presented in the Appendix on pages 11 and 12. Table 1Ranking Currency-Hedged Global Spread Product Yields We also show two versions of the yield rankings - one using trailing volatility over the past year in the denominator of the risk-adjusted yield, and the other using trailing volatility over three years in the denominator. This is important, as bond volatility over the past year has been historically depressed and is much lower than the three-year volatility measure for almost every spread sector. The conclusion is that many sectors that look most attractive using the more recent low volatility look less appealing with a more "normal" volatility level. For example, U.S. high-yield corporates are the top ranked sector in USD terms using a trailing one-year volatility, but that ranking falls to #10 using a higher three year volatility. Euro area high yield falls from #6 to #11 when applying the different volatility measures, while emerging market USD-denominated sovereign debt falls from #3 to #6. While the differences in the yield rankings are not as meaningful for higher-quality sectors, and for other base currencies besides the U.S. dollar, the main takeaway is that a higher volatility environment can alter the relative attractiveness of spread sectors given the current low level of yields. Thus, if central banks now have reduced ability to respond to volatility shocks by signaling a more dovish stance - given strong growth, tight labor markets and slowly rising inflation - then investors should judge spread product, and risk assets in general, using a higher level of volatility than seen last year. The conclusion is that we should be using the upper left column of Table 1, using the more "normal" level of yield volatility, when assessing the attractiveness of spread sectors within our recommended investment universe that uses the U.S. dollar as the base currency. With regards to corporate bonds in our model bond portfolio, that means favoring U.S. investment grade over euro area and emerging market equivalents and favoring U.S. high yield over euro area high yield. We are happy to report that we already have those recommendations implemented in our portfolio. While the absolute valuations of U.S. investment grade corporates, from a perspective of breakeven spreads, do look historically tight (Chart 6, middle panel), the same can be said for euro area investment grade corporates (Chart 7, middle panel). We are willing to take that trans-Atlantic spread risk favoring the U.S., however, given that currency hedging costs continue to favor U.S. dollar investments over euro-denominated equivalents. Chart 6Favor U.S. Corporate Bonds... Chart 7...Especially Versus Euro Area Corporates The story is cleaner for U.S. high yield over euro are high yield, as the default-adjusted spreads in the former (Chart 6, bottom panel) look far more attractive than in the latter (Chart 7, bottom panel). Bottom Line: The relative risk-adjusted attractiveness of global spread product looks different when using a higher level of yield volatility, particularly when hedged into U.S. dollars. Continue to favor U.S. investment grade and high yield corporate debt over euro area and emerging market equivalents, even with the more elevated volatility backdrop. Robert Robis, Senior Vice President Global Fixed Income Strategy rrobis@bcaresearch.com Appendix Appendix Chart 1Global Spread Product Yields, Hedged Into U.S. Dollars Appendix Chart 2Global Spread Product Yields, Hedged Into Euros Appendix Chart 3Global Spread Product Yields, Hedged Into British Pounds Appendix Chart 4Global Spread Product Yields, Hedged Into Japanese Yen 1 Please see BCA Global Fixed Income Strategy Weekly Report, "2018 Key Views: BCA's Outlook & What It Means For Global Fixed Income Markets", dated December 5th 2017, available at gfis.bcareseach.com. 2 Using rolling averages of 60-day realized hedged yield volatility. Recommendations The GFIS Recommended Portfolio Vs. The Custom Benchmark Index Duration Regional Allocation Spread Product Tactical Trades Yields & Returns Global Bond Yields Historical Returns