Despite higher uncertainty, our Brent price forecasts remain unchanged at just over $101/bbl for 4Q23 and $118/bbl for next year. We remain long equity exposure to oil and gas producers via the XOP ETF, and commodity exposure via the…
Hamas’s attack on Israel raises the odds of a wider conflict in the Gulf, which would lead to higher oil prices. Given the response of oil prices Monday, markets appear to be relatively restrained in their assessment of a sharp…
Volatility will remain the key dynamic in oil markets in the aftermath of the surprise Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7. The risk of a major oil supply shock has gone up, but meanwhile supply constraints will remain at…
China’s reopening faltered and now it is applying moderate stimulus. OPEC 2.0’s production discipline is getting results, with oil prices climbing. The Fed will not be able to deliver dovish surprises in Q4 2023. Investors should…
The geopolitical backdrop remains negative despite some marginally less negative news. China’s stimulus is not yet large or fast enough to prevent a market riot. Two of our preferred equity regions, ASEAN and Europe, are struggling…
Investors should underweight global equities and risk assets; overweight US stocks relative to global; and overweight defensive sectors versus cyclicals.
In Section I, we audit the market’s “soft landing” narrative in response to a meaningful challenge to our cautious stance from recent financial market developments. We acknowledge that US economic growth was stronger in the first…
Falling inflation enables central banks to pause rate hikes, which is good news. But time goes on. Restrictive monetary policy, Chinese debt-deflation, energy supply shocks, US and global policy uncertainty, and extreme geopolitical…
Positive economic surprises have delayed the onset of recession in the United States. But tighter monetary and fiscal policy, slowing global growth, and a looming rebound in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk suggest that…