Strategy Insight

The Middle East Never Went Away

09 Oct 2023

by Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist

Volatility will remain the key dynamic in oil markets in the aftermath of the surprise Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7. The risk of a major oil supply shock has gone up, but meanwhile supply constraints will remain at variance with global growth problems stemming from restrictive monetary policy over the next 12 months. Favor bonds over stocks, large caps over small caps, defense and energy stocks over other cyclicals, and US equities relative to global equities.

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BCA Research | Geopolitical Strategy

The financial industry’s premier geopolitical research service. We use hard data to calculate scenario probabilities and market impacts for geopolitical risks and opportunities.