Middle East & North Africa
Iran And What’s Potentially On The Horizon (Part 1…
Highlights We’ve searched in vain for imminent domestic weakness in the U.S. economy, … : Much of our work this spring has focused on trying to poke holes in our view that the equilibrium fed funds rate remains above the target fed funds rate, but we haven’t found any evidence of overheating in…
What Comes Next With Iran…
Will Iran Retaliate In Iraq…
Highlights So What? The Trump administration’s decision to apply maximum pressure to Iran fundamentally changes the investment landscape in 2019-20. Why? The impact of the Iran sanctions on a stand-alone basis can easily be handled given OPEC 2.0’s current spare capacity. However, not only…
Highlights In Indonesia, investors are ignoring the weakness in global growth, which is an important driver of the country’s financial markets. The Indonesian currency, equities and local currency bonds all remain vulnerable. We continue to recommend underweighting Indonesian assets for now.…
Highlights So what? Quantifying geopolitical risk just got easier. Why? In this report we introduce 10 proprietary, market-based indicators of country-level political and geopolitical risk. Featured countries include France, U.K., Germany, Italy, Spain, Russia, South Korea,…
Ghosts Of Futures Past…
Highlights So what? Egyptian assets will benefit from improving fundamentals. Why? March credit data confirm China’s stimulus, supporting the commodity/EM complex. Oil price risks are also to the upside. In Egypt, investors will welcome constitutional changes that reinforce the…
U.S. Waivers Dictate OPEC 2.0’s Decision On Production…