Middle East & North Africa
Highlights A World Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (WOPEC) looks set to emerge after today’s OPEC 2.0 video conference to discuss production cuts in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the market-share war between the leaders of the coalition led by the Kingdom of Saudi…
Highlights The odds of an emergency meeting of OPEC 2.0 to get supply under control are growing, based on the repeated overtures from Russian officials providing the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) an opening to resume talks on their production-management regime. We have developed a not-…
Highlights Rapidly changing news flows are forcing oil markets to recalibrate supply-demand fundamentals continuously. This will keep volatility at or close to recent record highs (Chart of the Week). The demand shock from COVID-19 accounts for ~ 65% of the oil price collapse, based on our…
Feature We closed our short position in EM equities last week but still maintain our short recommendation on EM currencies. Going forward we will be looking for signs of a durable bottom in risk assets. The clash between forthcoming massive economic stimulus around the world and the…
Highlights As the global economy moves toward shut-down, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Russia will be forced to end their market-share war and focus on shoring up their economies and tending to their populations’ welfare. Governments worldwide are rolling out fiscal- and monetary-…
Highlights Our short EM equity index recommendation has reached our target and we are booking profits on this trade. The halt to economic activity will produce a global recession that will be worse than the one that took place in late 2008. We continue to recommend short positions in a basket…
Highlights While not exactly conciliatory, Russian officials are signaling they will re-consider the declaration of a market-share war with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). KSA upped its shock-and-awe rhetoric promising to lift maximum sustainable capacity to 13mm b/d, which has kept prices…
Highlights Oil prices fell 30% when markets opened Monday morning, following a split between OPEC 2.0’s putative leaders – the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Russia – over production cuts to balance global oil markets (Chart 1). If KSA and Russia are able to repair the break in what OPEC…
Highlights Crude oil prices fell ~ 10% Friday after Russia refused to support additional production cuts agreed by OPEC in Vienna (Chart 1). As we go to press, Brent is trading close to $45/bbl and WTI is trading ~ $41/bbl. OPEC producers could implement the go-to strategy they’ve employed in…
Highlights Geopolitical sparks in the Mediterranean point to the revival of realism or realpolitik in places where it has long been dormant. Europe is wary of Russia but will keep buying more of its natural gas. This will be a source of tension with the United States. Turkey is wary of Russia…