Middle East
Executive Summary Turkey is staring into an abyss: economic crisis that will morph into political crisis in the June 2023 election cycle. President Erdoğan will pursue populist economic policies and foreign policy adventurism to try to stay in power, leading to negative surprises and “black…
Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and Iran. Despite the mainstream media narrative, the Xi-…
Executive Summary US Military Constraint: Strait Of Hormuz
Will Iran Crisis Be Averted…
Executive Summary With the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis materializing, the odds of a major war between the world’s great powers have gone up. Our decision trees suggest the odds are around 20%, or double where they stood from the Russian war in Ukraine alone. The world is playing “Russian…
Executive Summary Iran Reaches Nuclear Breakout
Biden And Putin Court The Middle East…
Executive Summary China's Unemployment
Questions From The Road…
Executive Summary EU Embargoes Russian Oil
Energy Cutoff Continues (GeoRisk Update…
Executive Summary Allies Still Have Faith In USD
Allies Still Have Faith In USD…
Executive Summary The Ukraine war reinforces our key view that commodity producers will use their geopolitical leverage this year. The market is growing complacent again about Russian risks. Iran is part of the same dynamic. If US-Iran talks fail, as we expect, the Middle East will…
Executive Summary Failure Of Iran Deal Tightens Oil Supply
Failure Of Iran Deal Tights Oil Supply…