According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, oil markets are caught in a tug-of-war that has kept oil prices in a trading range since H2 2023. Bearish demand concerns are enforcing an upper limit on…
Investors should buy protection against further volatility. The shakeup in early August was a taste of things to come. The US election is a pivotal moment in modern history that will drive up uncertainty, while other countries take…
The decision by GeoMacro team on July 2 to short USDJPY and underweight equities has proven to be prescient. We still do not like the market setup from here on out. A recession would, obviously, be negative for risk assets. But even…
Following the recent escalation in the Middle East conflict, BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service upgrades its subjective odds of a major oil supply shock to 37%. Volatility should spike again as investors…
The war in the Middle East is expanding, upgrading our subjective odds of a major oil supply shock to 37% and underscoring our 60% odds of Republican victory in November. Volatility should spike again as investors contemplate the…
Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.
In Section I, we examine some concerning signs of US economic weakness that emerged in June. We also discuss portfolio positioning in the face of falling interest rates and cross-check our recommended US equity overweight in the face…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash underscores the instability of Iran and the Middle East, which is getting worse, not better…
The death of the Iranian president reinforces our base case view of Middle Eastern instability and at least minor oil supply shocks. Rapid geopolitical developments in recent weeks are pointing to a new bout of global instability.…
The stock market will suffer a setback from the weakening labor market and a rebound in US and global policy uncertainty.