Special Report

Highlights So What? Global divergence will persist beyond the near term. Why? China’s stimulus will be disappointing unless things get much worse. U.S.-China trade war will reignite and strategic tensions will continue.…

Special Report

Highlights Structurally, EM corporate leverage is elevated and the interest coverage ratio is low. Cyclically, China/EM growth slowdown will lead to corporate spread widening. Rising U.S. dollar corporate bond yields in EM herald…

This week we are publishing Part 1 of an overview of the cyclical profiles of emerging market (EM) economies. This all-in-charts presentation illustrates the business cycle conditions of the largest EMs. The aim of this report is to…

Special Report

Highlights Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) will most likely win the upcoming presidential election; His rising popularity has increased the likelihood that his left-wing party MORENA wins the lower Chamber of Congress…

Special Report

Feature Valuations, whether for currencies, equities or bonds, are always at the top of the list of the determinants of any asset's long-term performance. This means that after large FX moves like those experienced so far this year…

Highlights BCA's Geopolitical Power Index (GPI) confirms that we live in a multipolar world; Most of President Trump's policies are designed to strike out against this structural reality; Trade war with China is real and…

Highlights Apart from rising geopolitical tensions, our main macro themes remain a growth slowdown in China and a rise in U.S. core inflation. This combination bodes ill for EM financial markets. Continue underweighting EM stocks,…

Highlights There is more downside risk ahead as the geopolitical calendar is packed in May; Protectionism remains in play, but markets could also fall on Iran-U.S. tensions, military intervention in Syria, and Russia-West…

Highlights There is growing evidence that China's industrial sector is slowing, as are Asian trade flows. EM stocks have seen their tops. Even though current trade tensions between the U.S. and China could well dissipate, we are at…

Highlights Bond Strategy: The investment backdrop is broadly evolving the way that we forecasted in our 2018 Outlook, thus we continue to maintain our core strategic recommendations. Maintain below-benchmark portfolio duration and…