Special Report

China is trying to export its way out of its economic slowdown while the US has already formed a hawkish consensus on foreign policy and trade. Investors should take cover as global financial markets are underrating the new phase of…

The RMB 500 billion program is small, as it is equivalent to only 4% of property developers' total funding from the past 12 months. This will preclude a recovery in property construction this year. Corporate profits will determine…

The economic schism in the world economy, between the non-US developed economy in recession and the US in strong growth, is unprecedented during our lifetimes. Now the schism will continue in reverse, as the non-US developed economy…

Q1 Earnings and sales growth were strong, but the devil is in the details: Without the Magnificent Five, earnings growth for the index would have been negative. On a positive note, margins have stabilized, and earnings growth is…

Our updated views on Treasury yields and Fed policy following this morning’s CPI report.

Special Report

The US stock market’s record 50 percent valuation premium versus the non-US stock market is pricing generative AI to do through the next decade what the Web 2.0 network effect did through the last decade. But this is a huge ask, as…

A reality check on credit data and announced property sector support measures indicates that the recent surge in Chinese share prices is unjustified based on the country's economic fundamentals.

Special Report

Mexico’s election and the US election pose short-term and potentially medium-term risks to Mexican financial assets. But unless the ruling party wins a double supermajority, we remain structurally overweight Mexico relative to global…

Why the US could get a jobs recession without a GDP recession, as happened in 2001, and what it means for stocks and bonds. Plus, an update on the Joshi rule.

Mainland residents’ investments in gold, other metals, and Hong Kong-traded stocks are a form of capital outflow. Chinese authorities will counter any excessive capital flight with stricter administrative controls. Thus, markets…