Materials
The COVID-19 induced recession has accelerated several paradigm shifts that were already afoot. Populism, anti-immigrant sentiment, deglobalization, and fiscal profligacy were replete – particularly in the US – even before the pandemic. For the first time since WWII, the US budget deficit…
Highlights Investment Grade Sector Valuation: Our investment grade corporate bond sector valuation models for the US, euro area, UK, Canada and Australia show some common messages, as markets have adjusted to a virus-stricken world. The most attractive valuations can be found within Energy and…
Highlights The duration of this crisis and the details of the plan to reopen the economy will determine whether the initial uptick in median home prices will prove to be transitory. Phase I provides room for construction to resume at least partially, while demand for homes is likely to recover…
Reinstate The Long S&P E&P/Short Global Gold Miners Trade…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy We remain comfortable with a 3,000 SPX fair value estimate backed up by our DDM, forward ERP and sensitivity analyses. The path of least resistance remains higher for the SPX on a 9-12 month cyclical time horizon. The oil price collapse is eliciting a massive…
Highlights Yesterday we published a Special Report titled EM: Foreign Currency Debt Strains. We are upgrading our stance on EM local currency bonds from negative to neutral. Before upgrading to a bullish stance, we would first need to upgrade our stance on EM currencies. We recommend…
Dear Client, Next week we will be publishing a joint Special Report on the Chinese infrastructure investment outlook with our Emerging Markets Strategy service, authored by my colleague Ellen JingYuan He. Best regards, Jing Sima, China Strategist Feature Chart I-1Chinese Non-Financial…
Materials As A Rebound Bet…
Highlights Bulk commodity markets – chiefly iron ore and steel – could see sharp rallies once Chinese authorities give the all-clear on COVID-19 (the WHO’s official name for the coronavirus). These markets rallied sharply Tuesday, as President Xi vowed China would achieve its growth targets…
Regulatory Risks Abound…