Market Returns
Highlights Trade wars have captured investors' imaginations, but slowing global growth is a more immediate risk for both asset prices and exchange rates. As reflationary forces ebb, slow global growth will help the dollar stage a rally. EUR/USD and GBP/…
Feature Japan's economic experience in the post bubble era is often described as a fate to avoid at all costs. We would like to turn this common notion on its head. Rather than something to avoid, Japan's post bubble experience is a fate that other major…
Highlights Solid fundamentals will keep the backwardation in the forward curves of the benchmark crude-oil streams - WTI and Brent - intact. If our long-held thesis is correct and OPEC 2.0 becomes a durable producer coalition, we believe it will maintain…
Highlights Chart 1Inflation Pressures Mount
Inflation Pressures Mount…
Dear Client, Yesterday, my colleagues Marko Papic, Matt Gertken, and I had a webcast to discuss the rising threats of trade wars between the U.S. and China. If you have not listened to it yet, I encourage you to listen to it here. Best regards, Mathieu…
Highlights The biggest demand-side risk to base metals this year remains a larger-than-expected China economic slowdown. A managed slowdown appears to be under way, with Beijing giving every appearance of balancing macro-prudential policies in a way that…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The reward/risk profile of air freight & logistics is extremely attractive. Synchronized global growth, the capex upcycle, a falling dollar and secular advance in e-commerce compel us to add this unloved transportation…
Highlights Our supply-demand balances indicate oil fundamentals are softening slightly. All else equal, this might prompt us to lower our average-price forecasts for Brent and WTI from $74 and $70/bbl this year by $2 to $3/bbl. However, this is oil: All…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Synchronized global growth, a soft U.S. dollar, our resurgent Boom/Bust Indicator and avoidance of a Chinese economic hard landing, are all signaling that it still pays to overweight cyclicals at the expense of defensives.…
Highlights Data based on Bloomberg/Barclays global treasury/aggregate indexes from December 1990 to January 2018 supports the argument that foreign government bonds are not worthy of investing in when unhedged, due to extremely high volatility. On a…