Market Returns
Highlights Risk assets have had a rough go of it since we last published on December 17th: Equities have been through the wringer, spreads have widened sharply, and the 10-year Treasury yield has tumbled to an 11-month low. We don’t put much stock in the talk that the Fed is about to go too…
Getting right to the point: Oil fundamentals are, and could remain, disconnected from benchmark prices, as they were in the waning days of 2018, when markets were forced to recalibrate global supply-demand balances in the dark. Four factors will drive this disconnect and keep volatility elevated…
Dear Client, This is our last publication of 2018. We wish all our clients a Merry Christmas and a Happy New year! We will be back on January 3, 2019. Thank you, The Commodity & Energy Strategy Team! Because they missed the first wave of North American Liquified Natural Gas (LNG…
Dear Clients, This is the final publication for the year. The Emerging Markets Strategy team wishes you a very happy holiday season and a prosperous New Year! Best regards, Arthur Budaghyan Highlights The recent EM outperformance is a mid-bear market stabilization, and is at its late…
Dear Client, This will be the last Global Investment Strategy report of 2018. Publication will resume on January 4th. On behalf of the entire Global Investment Strategy team, I would like to wish you a Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and a Healthy New Year! Best regards, Peter Berezin, Chief…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The drubbing in the S&P semi equipment index is overdone and even a modest improvement on either the trade policy, industry demand or currency fronts could result in a reflex rebound, warranting an above benchmark allocation. An oil price rebound on the back…
Highlights On the bright side, Malaysia’s structural backdrop is improving notably, especially in the semiconductors segment. Yet the cyclical growth outlook remains downbeat. While we are maintaining a market-weight allocation to Malaysian equities within an EM equity portfolio, we are…
… quick’s the word and sharp’s the action. Jack Aubrey1 Idiosyncratic supply-demand adjustments – some induced by head-spinning reversals of policy (e.g., the U.S. about-face on Iran oil export sanctions) – and uncertainty regarding monetary policy and trade will keep volatility in oil, metals…
Highlights Late-cycle pressures will keep pushing bond yields higher. Global growth will remain above trend in 2019, keeping unemployment rates low and preventing central banks from turning dovish. The unwind of crisis-era global monetary policies will continue. Slowing central bank asset…
Highlights Our take on the key macro drivers of financial markets hasn’t evolved much since we laid it out this summer, … : Monetary policy is still accommodative; lenders are ready, willing and able; and the expansion remains intact. ... but the inflection points are getting nearer: The good…