Market Returns
Feature BCA Research (aka The Bank Credit Analyst) published its first report in 1949, a remarkable 70 years ago. This probably makes us the longest-running independent investment research firm in the world. As we age, it is normal to occasionally reflect on how the world has changed over the…
Highlights Sovereign bond yields have cratered over the last few months, … : Over the last three months, 10-year yields in the U.S., France, Germany, Switzerland and Australia have fallen by 71, 64, 53, 54, and 67 basis points, respectively. … and the Treasury curve has experienced a…
Highlights The plunge in government bond yields means that There Is No Alternative to stocks: TINA. As long as bond yields stay reasonably low, stocks will continue to climb the proverbial wall of worry. Global equities are quite cheap compared with bonds. This suggests that stock market…
Analyses on the Philippines, Colombia and Argentina are available below. Highlights Global growth conditions, especially outside the U.S., remain bond friendly. Nevertheless, U.S. bonds are overbought and technical factors might exert upward pressure on them in the near term. Our ubiquitous…
Hard-to-predict policy risks and trade-war uncertainty will continue to hinder oil-demand growth, as will USD strength. The cost of oil in local-currency terms remains close to highs not seen since Brent and WTI traded above $100/bbl in 2014 in key EM economies, which partly explains the fall-…
Feature Chart 1A Feeling Of Deja Vu?
A Feeling Of Deja Vu…
How important is the potential thawing of the Sino-U.S. trade war to oil markets? On a scale of 1 – 10, this goes up to 11 (Chart of the Week). Brent’s and WTI’s one-day rally of ~ 5% on Tuesday, followed by a 4.5% sell-off on Wednesday, is a testimony to the importance these markets place…
Highlights Negative Interest Rates: Time will tell if negative bond yields are indeed the “new normal”. We need to see negative yields maintained outside of a growth slowdown to prove that thesis. USTs & Bunds: U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds both look overbought, amid extreme price/yield…
Analysis on India is available below. Highlights Moderate RMB depreciation is consistent with the economic as well as political objectives of Chinese authorities. Yet, this is bad news for EM currencies and risk assets. As EM currencies depreciate, driven by a weaker RMB and lower commodities…
Dear Client, In case you missed it in real time, please listen to a replay of this quarter’s webcast ‘The Investment World in 5 Charts and 18 Minutes’ available at eis.bcaresearch.com. Also please note that we will be taking a summer break, so our next report will come out on August 22. Dhaval…