Market Returns
Dear client, It was my pleasure to join Dhaval Joshi, BCA’s Chief European Investment Strategist, this past Friday June 12, 2020 on a webcast he hosted titled: “Sectors To Own, And Sectors To Avoid In The Post-Covid World”. You can access the replay of the lively webcast here, where Dhaval and I…
Highlights US dry gas production – the gas traded on futures exchanges and consumed by firms and households – is expected to fall ~ 2.5% this year to 89.7 bcf/d. Consumption will be down ~ 4% to 74.3 bcf/d. High carryout stocks from a warmer-than-normal winter mean US natgas storage…
Highlights Risks assets have entered a FOMO-driven mania phase that could last for a few more weeks. Markets are ignoring the particularities of this recession and are treating the post-lockdown activity snapback as a V-shaped recovery. A weaker than expected global recovery and rising…
The COVID-19 induced recession has accelerated several paradigm shifts that were already afoot. Populism, anti-immigrant sentiment, deglobalization, and fiscal profligacy were replete – particularly in the US – even before the pandemic. For the first time since WWII, the US budget deficit…
Feature The SPX suffered its third 5.3-7.3% pullback since early April last week, which we deem a healthy development as markets cannot go up in a straight line. While there is a chance this latest pullback may morph into a correction, our sense is that equities will remain range bound in the…
Dear Client, In lieu of our regular report next week, we will be sending you a Special Report on China from Matt Gertken, BCA Research’s Chief Geopolitical Strategist. Matt will discuss whether China’s President Xi Jinping is losing his political mandate. Best regards, Peter Berezin, Chief…
April In Review: All About The Fed…
Highlights Uncertainty over the duration of lockdowns globally will continue to hamper the estimation of the global demand recovery for commodities. This uncertainty will continue to fuel safe-haven demand for USD for the balance of 2Q20. In addition, markets continue to experience a shortage…
Highlights Q1/2020 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio underperformed the custom benchmark by -40bps during the first quarter of the year – a number that would have been far worse if not for the changes in exposures for duration (increased) and spread product (decreased…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Our conservative dividend growth assumptions especially for the next three years – largely mimicking the GFC experience – result in an SPX 3,000 fair value target. Relative performance already reflects the jump in demand for packaged foods. A firm US dollar and…