Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2024.
We dig into the USD-denominated Emerging Market Sovereign Index to see which credit tiers and countries offer value relative to US Credit.
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Mexico’s presidential election on June 2 is likely to produce policy continuity, but a big win for the ruling party would be market-negative, at least…
Peru is entering a benign macro environment: low and falling inflation amid a solid economic recovery. The country’s balance of payments position is robust, which will help the PEN depreciate by less than other EM currencies. The…
Colombia: Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Public Finances, And Political Uncertainty Warrant Underweight
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service argues that Colombia has fallen from grace in terms of its healthy macroeconomic fundamentals, business-friendly government policies, and conservative fiscal stances.…
Colombia has fallen from grace in terms of its healthy macroeconomic fundamentals, business-friendly government policies, and conservative fiscal stances. The economy is experiencing stagflation, public finances are deteriorating…
In the past couple of years, Mexico has been among the favorite markets for investors within the EM space. As our Emerging Markets Strategy team argued in a recent report, the cyclical and structural outlook for Mexican risk…
Continue overweighting Mexican stocks, sovereign credit, and local bonds relative to their respective EM benchmarks. That said, the peso is overbought and will correct versus the US dollar. Therefore, we recommend that investors…
While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct…