Brazil’s economy is like a patient who has been misdiagnosed and is receiving the wrong treatment. The odds of a complete recovery for this patient are not great. Presently, investors are scrutinizing the details of the announced…
In absolute terms, Chilean markets and the currency will fall given a strengthening trend in the US dollar and weak global trade. However, Chile’s economy can withstand the global trade slump relatively well due to substantial…
EM credit markets have recently defied the selloffs in EM equities, currencies, local currency bonds, and commodities. According to our Emerging Markets Strategy colleagues, such a decoupling is unusual. A potential Trump re-…
According to BCA Research’s Private Markets & Alternatives service, intra-market repricing will offer investors a unique opportunity to enter the industrial real estate space in the next two years. In the short…
Claudia Sheinbaum officially became Mexico's new president amid significant market pessimism. Our Emerging Market strategists highlighted that investor fears about Mexico’s constitutional changes were largely…
The politically induced selloff in Mexican markets has gone too far. In our view, investor fears about the constitutional changes are largely unwarranted. These reforms will have little to no ramifications for the economy in the…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Brazil’s decision to raise interest rates is supported by recent economic data. Back in January of this year, they noted that Brazil would…
The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) raised interest rates last week. Is this the commencement of a major tightening cycle that will persist well into next year? Despite this move, we maintain that the BCB will cut interest rates…
Brazilian equities have largely underperformed their EM peers in USD terms since the beginning of the year. Rising public debt and inflation are the two main forces weighing on the Brazilian bourse. Our Emerging Market…
GeoMacro team partners with BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy to examine political reforms in Argentina. Our colleague Juan Egaña argues that the time is not right to go long Argentinian assets and that Buenos Aires must avoid the…