Russia’s conflict with the West will escalate and trigger more bad news for risky assets this fall. Beyond that, stalemate looms. Latin American equities present a potential opportunity once the macro and geopolitical backdrop…
Opinion polls ahead of Brazil’s election this weekend suggest that odds are in favor of a victory for former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. While a runoff election on October 30 will be needed if no candidate…
Executive Summary Brazil: The Economic Rebound Will Not Last Brazil’s goldilocks phase of economic recovery, improving fiscal accounts and falling inflation will prove to be short lived. On the contrary, the country…
Executive Summary Our negative view on the summer rally is coming to fruition, with equities falling back on the negative geopolitical, macro, and monetary environment. China is easing policy ahead of its full return to autocratic…
Executive Summary More Regional Divergences Within Our Global LEI The BCA global leading economic indicator (LEI) is still in a downtrend, but its diffusion index – which tends to lead the overall global LEI at major…
Executive Summary Colombian Stocks Failed To Break Above Technical Resistances The economy is booming, but capacity constraints are already biting. Structurally, the election of leftist Gustavo Petro will entail a…
Executive Summary Mexico: Inflation Is At A Two-Decade High Mexican financial markets – stocks, fixed-income and the currency – will continue outperforming their EM counterparts. The Mexican economy is…
Executive Summary China: GeoRisk Indicator A new equilibrium between NATO, which now includes Sweden and Finland, and Russia needs to be reestablished before geopolitical risks in Europe subside. Russia aims to inflict a…
Gustavo Petro’s victory in the second round of the Colombian presidential election over the weekend is the latest in a shift in LATAM politics to the left. Though the margin of victory was slim, Petro will be the first left…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Brazil’s economy is heading into another recession in H2 this year. Inflation in Brazil continues to surprise to the upside: headline CPI is 12%, core…