Mexican equity and fixed-income markets will continue outperforming their EM counterparts, regardless of whether global risk assets sell off or not. Also, we recommend a new trade: long Mexican stocks / short the S&P 500.
Despite a shift toward an easing bias, a December cut remains unlikely in Brazil. A BCB committee member stated the tightening cycle has ended and the next move could be a cut, shifting the bias from tightening to easing. But a…
President Javier Milei’s electoral win has massively outperformed expectations. Meaningful legislative support and renewed market confidence will revitalize his liberalizing economic program. Our recommendation not to sell Argentine…
September CPI releases in Brazil and Mexico reinforce a divergent inflation and policy outlook that supports an overweight stance in Mexican local bonds and currency relative to Brazilian assets. Brazil’s headline CPI at 5.2% was…
Chilean equities are undergoing a structural re-rating. A political swing back to a pro-business administration, a benign macro backdrop, and a resilient exchange rate will drive Chilean markets’ outperformance versus EM peers.…
USD-denominated Emerging Market bonds have been outperforming US corporates for the past year. We don’t think the rally is exhausted yet.
The Buenos Aires election results are a setback for the government's political momentum, but not the endgame. Our long-term bullish view remains in place, but short-term investors should stay on the sidelines in the near run.
Colombian markets will be torn between expectations of future orthodox policies and the reality of a worsening macro backdrop in the next 12 months. To balance risks, we are upgrading Colombian equities, local bonds, and sovereign…
Despite widespread investor optimism Brazil’s currency outlook is challenged by a toxic mix of poor external, fiscal, and macro fundamentals. Expect BRL to underperform most EM peers.
The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) held rates at 15%, guaranteeing a sharp growth slowdown and reinforcing our underweight stance on Brazilian equities versus EM. All Copom board members voted to maintain an ultra-hawkish policy…