Labor Market
Executive Summary We have been constructive-to-bullish on financial markets and the economy since policymakers marshaled the full force of their resources to protect the economy from the pandemic in the spring of 2020. The policymakers-versus-the-virus…
Executive Summary The unemployment rate in the US stands at 3.6%, 0.4 percentage points below the FOMC’s estimate of full employment. Historically, the Fed’s efforts to nudge up the unemployment rate have failed: The US has never averted a recession…
Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds
Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Tighter Financial Conditions May Affect Growth
Tighter Financial Conditions May Affect Growth…
Executive Summary China’s Business Cycle Has Not Bottomed
China's Business Cycle Has Not Bottomed…
Executive Summary Fed Chair Powell is attempting to steer the US economy between the Scylla of a recession and the Charybdis of entrenched high inflation. In the benign soft-landing outcome, the economy will continue to grow well above trend while…
Executive Summary Investors Think The Fed Will Not Be Able To Raise Rates Much Above 2%
Is A Higher Neutral Rate Good Or Bad For Stocks…
Executive Summary For the Fed, maintaining its credibility with a long sequence of rate hikes that does not crash the economy, real estate market, and stock market is akin to the ‘Hail Mary’ move of (American) football. The likelihood that the Fed…
Executive Summary US Treasury yields have surged in response to high US inflation and Fed tightening expectations. However, the move looks overdone in the near-term. Too many Fed hikes are now discounted for 2022, US realized inflation should soon peak,…
Executive Summary The Market Thinks The Fed Will Be Unable To Raise Rates Much Above 2%
The Market Thinks The Fed Will Be Unable To Raise Rates Much Above 2…