Executive Summary The default take on the economy and financial markets has been tilting increasingly bearish although the ongoing data flow has yet to pick a side. The data in the stories from the front page of The New York Times…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Sentiment On Sterling Is Depressed The pound will suffer in the short term, setting the stage for a coiled-spring rebound. Cable is extremely…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Recession Checklist US stocks were down almost 20% at their lowest point in May. Any lower and they would be pricing in recession.…
Executive Summary Markets Priced For A Restrictive Level Of Australian Rates The neutral interest rate in Australia is lower than in past cycles, for several reasons: low potential growth, weak productivity, high household…
Executive Summary Credit Demand Collapsed Business activity data from April showed a broad-based contraction in China’s economy. Credit growth tumbled as demand collapsed. Bank loan expansion slowed by the most in…
Executive Summary First IG, Then HY Corporate bonds are following the 2018 roadmap. Investment grade underperformed Treasuries as interest rate expectations rose from low levels, then junk joined the selloff once rate…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The US Inflation Surprise Index Has Rolled Over Global equities are nearing a bottom and will rally over the coming months as…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Dollar Likes Volatility Uncertainty about Fed policy has supercharged volatility in bond markets, and correspondingly, USD demand (Feature…