Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2023. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and…
Excess job vacancies in the US and UK reflect a labour market that cannot efficiently match unemployed workers with vacant jobs. This is because excess job vacancies reflect the shortage of labour supply in the 50 plus age cohort,…
The latest CPI and PPI releases, the modestly less hawkish turn in Fed officials’ comments and evidence that consumers continue to spend with some relish support our constructive near-term views on equities and the economy.
The kinked supply framework helps explain why US inflation rose so suddenly shortly after the pandemic began and why the economy is likely to experience a benign disinflation over the next six months.
Central banker messaging after the latest rate hike announcements in the US, UK and Australia indicates a shift in focus from the pace of hikes to how high rates must rise to slow growth and bring down inflation. This represents the…
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2022.
While there is much variability in company profitability, earnings contractions have commenced and appear to be broad-based. We expect earnings growth to deteriorate further into year-end. Companies are reporting concerns about the…
As the FOMC explicitly acknowledged this week, monetary policy operates with substantial lags. We see the risks to stocks as tilted to the upside over the next 6 months but are neutral on global equities over a 12-month horizon.
Older workers have deserted the labour force in the US and the UK, but not so in the Euro area and Japan. The result is that wage inflation is red hot in the US and the UK, but not so in the Euro area and Japan. Hence, the Bank of…