In this Special Report, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Fixed Income Strategy teams argue that as the lagged impact of higher interest rates hits the Canadian economy, what will initially appear as a potential hard landing…
In Section I, we address the recent improvement in several data releases over the past three months, and explain why we do not believe that these developments have increased the odds of a soft landing. US monetary policy likely…
The risk of a recession in 2023 is being supplanted by the risk of another inflation wave. We will turn more defensive on equities if it continues to look like inflation is making a comeback.
Ironically, increased confidence that the economy can withstand higher bond yields may be necessary to lift yields to a level that is actually detrimental to growth. Thus, until more investors are convinced that a recession will be…
The Fed’s actions at its meeting last Wednesday were no surprise – downshifting to 25 basis points while guiding for more hikes was widely expected – but Chair Powell’s newly conciliatory tone at the press conference helped to spark…
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2023.
This week, we articulate what the actions of the three major central banks that met (Fed, ECB and BoE) mean for currency markets. This is within the context of our analysis of the latest data releases in the G10, that allows us to…
The US economy will experience a period of benign disinflation over the next few quarters. Beyond this goldilocks period, either the economy will slip into a mild recession in 2024, or more ominously, a second wave of inflation will…
President Biden’s political capital has fallen as he enters a challenging year that will include a domestic faceoff with the House Republicans and foreign crises stemming from China, Russia, and Iran. Stay defensive and prefer bonds…