Through February and March, the number of US ‘job losers’ surged by almost half a million. Constituting the largest two-month increase in Americans who have lost their job since the depth of the pandemic. Unless we see a big drop in…
Eventually South Africa will do its macro rebalancing the least painful way: via adjustments in nominal variables such as prices and currency, rather than in real variables such as jobs and incomes. That entails a much weaker rand in…
Bullish equity sentiment may persist in the second quarter on the Fed’s pause, but tight monetary policy, financial instability, elevated recession odds, extreme US polarization and policy uncertainty, and still-high geopolitical…
High rates have hurt real estate and, now, banks. The next shoes to drop: Loan growth, profits, and employment. Stay defensive. Recession is probable, but risk assets have not priced it in.
We think the banking turmoil set off by Silicon Valley Bank’s failure will prove to be less than it’s been cracked up to be and that it will not derail the near-term equity we expect.
Colombian assets are inexpensive, but they are cheap for a reason. The economy is entering a growth recession while inflation will remain sticky and above target. Further, President Gustavo Petro’s policies will lead to lower…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
It is too early to know whether the drop in bond yields will offset the drag on growth from tighter lending standards. But if it does, the net effect on equity valuations could be positive. This is enough to justify a modest tactical…
The turmoil in US regional banks will weigh on economic growth. Arguably, it would be better for the broader stock market if growth slowed because banks became more conservative in their lending than if it slowed because the Fed had…
The growth and inflation profiles of the three central European countries are set to diverge. The outlook for Polish and Hungarian Bonds are not attractive anymore. Book profits on them. Instead, initiate a new trade: pay Polish /…