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Japan

Preliminary PMI releases for May continue to show a divergence in activity across DM economies. On the one hand, the pace of expansion of service sector activity accelerated. The US Services PMI rose from 53.6 to 55.1 – beating expectations of a decline to…
Recent Asian trade data do not provide any optimism that the global manufacturing slump is nearing its end. South Korean exports collapsed by 16.1% y/y in the first 20 days of May. While the decline was broad-based, sales to China were particularly weak,…
After a powerful 40% rally from the March 2020 lows, AUD/JPY peaked in September 2022 and has been consolidating those gains in bearish trading pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Although the cross is up 4.5% from the March bottom this year, the rally has…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, on a timeframe of two years, investors should shock-proof their portfolios by holding some combination of cheap insurance assets. All shocks end up with both deflationary and inflationary components: either…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service remains bullish on the yen’s longer-term outlook. The yen is at capitulation levels. Long positions versus the dollar can be established at USD/JPY 138. The team’s longer-term bullish yen view is anchored…

Yen bulls need patience. The near-term narrative remains bearish on the back of interest-rate differentials. Longer term, it is the most attractive currency the G10, on valuation grounds.

Yen bulls need patience. The near-term narrative remains bearish on the back of interest-rate differentials. Longer term, it is the most attractive currency the G10, on valuation grounds.

Japanese inflation was perky in March. Headline CPI came in at 3.2%, a slight deceleration from the previous month on a year-on-year basis, but still astronomical by Japanese standards. The real surprise was the acceleration in core CPI (ex-fresh food and…

No, the secular rise in geopolitical risk has not peaked. EU-China trade ties underscore the multipolar context, but this multipolarity is unbalanced, as the US has not reached a new equilibrium with its rivals. While the second quarter is murky, investors should stay defensive this year on the whole.

In this <i>Special Report</i>, BCA Strategist Ritika Mankar highlights that Japanese savers own foreign assets to the tune of a staggering $6.5 trillion today. As implausible as it may seem today, the rate cycle in Japan will turn later this decade. Once it does, Japanese savers will sell down their global assets – a dynamic that is likely to kick up a storm.