Iran
Investors should maintain a conservative and defensive strategy until recession risks are clearly reduced.
Expect the Middle East to create new and unexpected energy supply disruptions on top of the Russian energy shock.
Investors should go long US treasuries and stay overweight defensive versus cyclical sectors, large caps versus small caps, and aerospace/defense stocks. Regionally we favor the US, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, while disfavoring China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, eastern Europe, and the Middle East.
Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and Iran. Despite the mainstream media narrative, the Xi-…
Executive Summary US Military Constraint: Strait Of Hormuz
Will Iran Crisis Be Averted…
Executive Summary With the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis materializing, the odds of a major war between the world’s great powers have gone up. Our decision trees suggest the odds are around 20%, or double where they stood from the Russian war in Ukraine alone. The world is playing “Russian…
Executive Summary Oil Markets Remain Tight
Oil Markets Remain Tight…
Executive Summary Iran Reaches Nuclear Breakout
Biden And Putin Court The Middle East…
Executive Summary China's Unemployment
Questions From The Road…
Executive Summary EU Embargoes Russian Oil
Energy Cutoff Continues (GeoRisk Update…