BCA's Hormuz Crisis Dashboard
Aerial to Naval
• Drone and missile attacks slowed down as of March 11, but Iran still possesses about 40-50% of its missile stockpile, according to military estimates. This suggests that attacks will continue, albeit at a slower rate.
• Clients need to pay attention to naval warfare. Iran has a sizeable stockpile of naval mines and unmanned vehicles it can use to attack shipping. There was barely any movement in the Strait last week, and the fact that a few ships were hit this week will continue to deter movements.
• Oil prices rose overnight despite the release of 400 million barrels by IEA members, indicating that markets see the move as insufficient to address the Strait’s blockage.
• Military and economic measures have so far been unable to open the Strait or lower energy prices, as Iranian leaders remain defiant. The world needs a political solution, not a military one.
For more of our analysis on the conflict, visit our Iran topic page.
Conflict
These charts show daily data on missile and drone attacks launched from Iran towards the Gulf countries. They provide context on the intensity and phases of the unfolding conflict.
Energy Flows
Gulf countries produce a significant portion of global crude oil, natural gas, and refined products. After the start of the war, these products were halted and could not pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Increased traffic through the strait would suggest a softening of the war.
Commodities
This conflict could be the largest energy shock since the Ukraine war in 2022. The impact will extend beyond the energy market. Hydrocarbons are not only used as energy sources but also as inputs for other materials, most notably fertilizer. The Gulf states have also diversified their economies in recent years, and now refine metals, which means the bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz will influence metal prices.
Macro
The energy shock is occurring while inflation remains only partially controlled worldwide. Financial markets will react if inflation expectations increase as the conflict persists over a longer period.
