BCA's Iran Conflict Daily Dashboard
Real-time charts on the Hormuz crisis, energy, and macro risk
Energy Flows
Gulf countries produce a significant portion of global crude oil, natural gas, and refined products. After the start of the war, these products were halted and could not pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Increased traffic through the strait would suggest a softening of the war.
Significant outages on marked infrastructure will exacerbate the conflict's energy supply shock.
Gulf energy producers are cutting crude output.
Post-conflict, flows through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed. (Updated Weekly).
Post-conflict, flows through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed. (Updated Weekly).
All product shipments through Hormuz are impacted.
All product shipments through Hormuz are impacted.
Shipping through the Suez Canal is not a viable alternative. (Updated Weekly).
Shipping through the Suez Canal is not a viable alternative. (Updated Weekly).
High seaborne oil freight rates will pass onto oil and petroleum product prices.
Continued disruption will exacerbate overall supply chain pressures.
Disrupted crude supplies from the Middle East will likely reduce Chinese refinery run rates.
US oil and gas production could ameliorate the Middle East oil disruption.
US Strategic Petroleum Reserves is at historically low levels.
Europe and Asia are most at risk from the oil supply disruption.
Europe and Asia are most at risk from the overall energy supply disruption.
Commodities
This conflict could be the largest energy shock since the Ukraine war in 2022. The impact will extend beyond the energy market. Hydrocarbons are not only used as energy sources but also as inputs for other materials, most notably fertilizer. The Gulf states have also diversified their economies in recent years, and now refine metals, which means the bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz will influence metal prices.
Macro
The energy shock is occurring while inflation remains only partially controlled worldwide. Financial markets will react if inflation expectations increase as the conflict persists over a longer period.
Conflict - Coverage on pause as ceasefire holds
These charts show daily data on missile and drone attacks launched from Iran towards the Gulf countries. They provide context on the intensity and phases of the unfolding conflict.
The number of drones and missiles launched at the UAE by Iran.
Total drones and missiles launched by Iran at the Gulf States.
The rate at which missiles and drones are launched indicates the progress and stage of the conflict.
Total events of aggression by Iran at the Gulf States.
Total attack events on neighbors by attack method.
Number of protest events in Iran, by nature of protest.
Confirmed deaths by actor group.
Attack events on Iran by the US and/ or Israel.
Attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz will discourage ships from passing through.
The region is a key international aviation hub, and air traffic was halted at the start of the war.
The conflict raises oil prices and inflation, which will hit President Trump's and the Republican Party's popularity as the US enters the midterm election campaign season.
