Executive Summary Buying a home is now more expensive than renting in many parts of the world. In the US and UK, disappearing homebuyers combined with a flood of home-sellers will weigh on home prices over the next 6-12 months.…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of the year and beyond.
Executive Summary There has never been a modern era recession or sharp slowdown in which the oil price did not collapse. In a recession, the massive destruction of oil demand always overwhelms a tight supply. Across the last six…
Executive Summary At our monthly view meeting on Monday, BCA strategists voted to change the House View to a neutral asset allocation stance on equities, with a slight plurality favoring an outright underweight. The…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Higher Real Yields Have Weighed On Equity Valuations I had the pleasure of visiting clients in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Abu Dhabi last week.…
Executive Summary Was FAANGM A Bubble? US inflation has become broad-based, and the labor market is very tight. Wages are a lagging variable, and they will be rising rapidly in the coming months, even as the economy slows…
Executive Summary Economic growth is now a casualty, and not a driver, of monetary policy choices. Inflation is dictating where central banks are taking interest rates. Our baseline view remains that core US inflation will…
In lieu of next week’s report, I will host a Webcast on Monday, June 27 to explain the recent market turmoil and how to navigate it through the second half of 2022. Please mark the date, and I do hope you can join. Executive…
Executive Summary Bonds sold off dramatically in response to Friday’s surprisingly high CPI number. Markets are now pricing in a much more rapid increase in the fed funds rate, with some probability of a 75 bps move this week.…
Executive Summary Competing Forces On Global Bond Yields Bond yields in the developed world have ticked higher recently, due to a renewed increase in oil prices and the spillover effect from more hawkish policy expectations…