This Fed is a single mandate Fed which won’t consider the job done until inflation reaches a 2% target. Concerns about slowing growth will displace concerns about inflation. Equities will bottom shortly before economic growth bottoms…
Falling inflation will allow bond yields to decline in the major economies over the next few quarters. As such, we recommend that investors shift their duration stance from underweight to neutral over a 12 month-and-longer horizon…
We recommend that investors use the following framework to think about whether potential disinflation would be bullish or bearish for share prices: disinflation will prove to be bullish for global share prices if it is due to an…
It takes time for wage inflation to die. So, if 2022 was the year that central banks’ monster tightening killed bond and stock market valuations, then 2023 will be the year that it finally reaches the economy and kills profits, jobs…
The kinked Phillips curve not only explains why inflation surged last year but makes a number of surprising predictions, chief of which is that inflation could fall significantly over the coming months without a major increase in the…
BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team’s view remains that US inflation will prove to be sticky. That said, in this report, we examine under what conditions a considerable drop in US core inflation, whenever it transpires, would be…
Is the BoE’s emergency intervention in its bond market a British idiosyncrasy that global investors can ignore? No, the UK’s near death experience sends three salutary warnings, with implications for all investors.
In this report, we assess that sterling likely bottomed below 1.04. We expect volatility in the currency to remain in place but are buyers below current levels. On balance, there is a tug of war between irresponsible fiscal policy…
The Fed says that to get back to 2 percent inflation, the US unemployment rate must increase by ‘just’ 0.6 percent through 2023-24. All well and good you might think, except that the Fed is forecasting something that has been…
We remain bearish on equities. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon that is embedded and perpetuated by a wage-price spiral. The Fed will “keep at it until the job is done.” Economic growth is slowing, and an earnings recession as soon…