The stimulus measures driving the post-COVID expansion were beginning to wane after five years and pointing the economy in the direction of an organically occurring recession. Now that DOGE and the multi-front trade war have sped up…
Tariffs will make a difficult job almost impossible. Hitting and sustaining a precise 2 percent inflation target is more about luck than judgement. It requires both the starting point for inflation expectations and any inflation/…
The US economy has never entered a demand-driven recession without labour demand running below labour supply and without the job vacancy rate running below the unemployment rate. Right now though, US labour demand is still running 1.…
Weekly Screeners: “Transitory” Inflation 2.0, European Aerospace & Defense, And Buffett’s Philosophy
This week, our three screeners cover equity plays for “transitory” inflation impacts from US tariffs, a correction in sentiment within the European Aerospace and Defense industry, and Value Investor, Warren Buffett’s Philosophy.…
A falling stock market and sticky bond yields represent the worst of both worlds for investors. We interrogate why bond yields haven’t dropped more given the large selloff seen in equities.
Core PCE inflation was tame this morning, but with large tariffs looming we anticipate loftier inflation readings in the months ahead.
January Canadian headline inflation was in line with estimates at 1.9% y/y. The Bank of Canada’s core measures were slightly hotter than expected, rising to 2.7%, near the top of the Bank of Canada’s 1%-to-3% target range. …
Our Emerging Markets and Commodities strategists explored the dislocations in metals markets as tariffs fears led to physical flows to the US and price spikes. US import tariffs on gold, silver, platinum, and copper are…
Some thoughts on this morning’s CPI report and its implications for the Fed and Treasury yields.
Please join BCA Research's Chief US Investment Strategist, Doug Peta for a Webcast on Wednesday, February 5 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET).