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Inflation/Deflation

Chinese Export Growth Disappoints In March
Chinese trade and credit data delivered a negative surprise for March. On the trade front, the 7.5% y/y drop in exports came in below expectations of a 1.9% y/y decline following four consecutive months of growth. While the jump in the New Export Orders…
Daily Insights
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The Mel Rule Says A US Recession Is Already Baked In The Cake

Contrary to conventional wisdom, most leading indicators suggest that the US labor market is weakening, including our very own “Mel rule.” After being overweight stocks last year, we moved to neutral at the start of 2024, and are now putting equities on downgrade watch with the expectation of shifting them to underweight later this year.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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The ECB Signals A June Rate Cut

At today’s monetary policy meeting, the ECB gave strong hints that rate cuts will begin as soon as the next meeting in June. In this Insight, we share our thoughts on today’s meeting and discuss the implications for European bond yields and the euro.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
US Headline PPI Softer Than Expected
Thursday’s US Produce Price Index report for March shows headline PPI came in below expectations on both a month-over-month (0.2%) and annual (2.1%) basis. Meanwhile, PPI ex food and energy came in at 0.2% m/m (in line with expectations), and 2.4% y/y(above…
Daily Insights
ECB: Mark Your Calendar For June
As expected, the Governing Council of the ECB kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday. In its statement, the ECB reiterated that most measures of underlying inflation were easing, wage growth was moderating, and firms were absorbing the rise in labor costs…
Daily Insights
US CPI Inflation Comes In Hot
Headline inflation came in at 0.4% on a MoM basis and 3.5% on an annual basis, beating expectations of 0.3% and 3.4% respectively. Meanwhile core inflation came in at 0.4% on a MoM basis and 3.8% on an annual basis, beating expectations of 0.3% and 3.7%…
Daily Insights
Stay Tuned For BoC Rate Cuts
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 5% on Wednesday, in line with expectations. In his opening remarks following the announcement, Governor Tiff Macklem was cautiously dovish:  “We don't want to leave monetary policy this restrictive longer…
Daily Insights
Lingering Inflation Is Bullish For Energy Stocks
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, rising inflation benefits Utilities, Energy, and Materials, and is a headwind for the Consumer Discretionary sector. After a protracted bout of underperformance, the Energy sector has rebounded …
Daily Insights
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Hot CPI, But Maybe Also A Buying Opportunity In Bonds

Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and bond market moves.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Recap Of Investment Themes

Fears of a hard landing are abating as growth has been surprising to the upside. New worries are emerging, such as the trajectory of disinflation, and the pace and timing of rate cuts. In this environment, it is important to build a resilient all-weather portfolio, which protects against a correction, rising rates, or stubborn inflation but also has exposure to the AI theme.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel

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