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The Mel Rule Says A US Recession Is Already Baked In The Cake

by Peter Berezin, Chief Strategist  

Contrary to conventional wisdom, most leading indicators suggest that the US labor market is weakening, including our very own “Mel rule.” After being overweight stocks last year, we moved to neutral at the start of 2024, and are now putting equities on downgrade watch with the expectation of shifting them to underweight later this year.

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BCA Research | Global Investment Strategy

As BCA Research’s flagship publication, the Global Investment Strategy service provides macro-based investment recommendations across all asset classes, geographies, and time horizons. 

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