Inflation/Deflation

Central banks are in a dilemma whether to prioritize supporting growth or bringing inflation back to target. This is unlikely to end well. Investors should be defensively positioned.

The latest edition of our Big Bank Beige Book suggests the expansion remains intact, though weakness in C’s private-label credit card portfolio could be a harbinger of distress among lower-income consumers. We remain tactically neutral with a bias to turn defensive once clearer signs of a recession emerge.

In this Special Report, we introduce our Euro Inflation-Linked Golden Rule – a framework to profitably trade and invest in Euro Area inflation-linked bonds versus nominals. The Rule is currently signaling that nominal government bonds should outperform inflation-linked bonds over the next year as disinflation in the Euro Area continues.