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Inflation/Deflation

UK Inflation Comes In Hotter Than Expected
UK inflation came in hotter than expected in March. Headline CPI inflation was unchanged at 0.6% m/m – above expectations of a slowdown to 0.4% m/m. Moreover, while the headline and core measures both decelerated on an annual basis, they exceeded consensus…
Daily Insights
On US Housing And Inflation
Developments in US multi-family housing are particularly relevant for the inflation outlook since they inform the future direction of shelter inflation – an important component of CPI inflation. Indeed, the Zillow multi-family rent index leads moves in the…
Daily Insights
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Greeting Q1-2024 Earnings Season

In this note, we preview the Q1-2024 earnings season, give our take on expectations and share what we will be watching.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
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Geopolitics In Q2 2024

In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and defense.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken, Junfei Guo, Jesse Anak Kuri
US Retail Sales Come In Hot
Advanced estimates for retail sales in the US grew by 0.7% m/m in March, down from an upwardly revised 0.9% m/m in February, but meaningfully outperforming expectations of 0.3% m/m. Retail sales ex autos also surprised to the upside, coming in at 1.1% m/m…
Daily Insights
Cool Inflation Print Means Riksbank Will Cut
Headline inflation in Sweden came in at 4.1% in March. Lower food prices as well as lower inflation for recreation and culture were the main contributors to the drop. The biggest positive contributor was housing due to higher mortgage costs. The CPIF…
Daily Insights
Higher Perceived Inflation Weighs On Consumer Morale
The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan gauge of consumer sentiment slid from 79.4 to 77.9 in April from 79.4, below expectations. Although both current conditions and expectations disappointed, the deterioration in expectations came against the…
Daily Insights
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A Whiff Of A Late Cycle?

In the short run, global risk assets are vulnerable due to rising oil prices and bond yields. Cyclically, a global economic downturn will weigh on global risk assets.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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Looking Beyond The Labor Market Headlines

We look beneath headline data to assess the state of the labor market in cyclical goods-producing industries that have previously led overall nonfarm payrolls and in the services segments that have recently been leading the charge. The bottom-up view looks a lot like the top-down view: the labor market is softening, but very slowly, and offers no indications that a recession is at hand.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Rangebound Euro

EUR/USD collapsed in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report. Is this pessimism warranted and will the euro’s trading range that has prevailed since 2023 breakdown?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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