Inflation/Deflation

US assets and the US dollar should remain resilient relative to global peers over the next 12 months as policy uncertainty, election risk, and geopolitical risk reach a climax. After that, investors should reassess their regional allocation.

In this insight, we update our thinking on the recent BoJ move in terms of positioning for the yen and JGB yields.

The new national unity government in South Africa creates a geopolitical opportunity that investors should not bet against in the short term. A broad-based rally is likely to unfold relative to other emerging markets. However, structural problems and distrust within the new coalition hold out significant risks over the long run.

Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.