Inflation/Deflation
China: Weak Inflation, Stimulus Upside Limited…
Core Europe’s industrial sector will relapse in the coming months due to US tariffs and a strong euro. Investors can play the imminent deflationary shock by being long Central European bonds. They should, however, hedge the currency risk vis-à-vis the euro.
Resilient NAB Survey Undercuts Dovish RBA Pricing…
Small Business Confidence Improves But Growth Is Still Fragile…
Eco Watchers Beat But BoJ Hike Still Distant…
NY Fed Survey Shows Anchored Inflation, Fragile Jobs Outlook…
Inflation expectations in the US remain reasonably well anchored and there are few signs of a brewing wage-price spiral. Thus, the near-term risks to growth outweigh the risks of higher inflation. Looking beyond the next year or two, however, we are worried about stagflation.
Employment Weakness Undermines ISM Services Strength…
China PMIs Uptick Doesn’t Alter Case For Targeted Stimulus…
Turkey Disinflation Supports Bullish Case For 2-Year Bonds…