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Inflation/Deflation

Resilient US Labor Market Prompts Equity And Bond Selloff
Global stocks fell and sovereign bond yields surged on Thursday following the release of stronger-than-anticipated US labor market data. Data released by Challenger, Gray, & Christmas showed job cuts declined to 40,709 last month from 80,089 in May.…
Daily Insights
A Toxic Mix

On one hand, China will be exporting deflation to the rest of the world. On the other hand, core inflation is sticky in the US, making the Fed err on the hawkish side. Altogether, these crosscurrents are creating a toxic mix for risk asset prices.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Not Much In The Minutes, Wait For Payrolls And CPI
The minutes from the June FOMC meeting didn’t reveal anything that wasn’t already known. They did explicitly say that “some” participants would have preferred a 25 basis point rate hike instead of a pause at the last meeting, but this was already evident from…
Daily Insights
Declining Producer Prices Foreshadow Lower Eurozone CPI Inflation
Eurozone producer prices fell by more than anticipated in May. The -1.5% y/y decrease – which marked the first annual drop since December 2020 – was more pronounced than expectations of a -1.3% y/y decline and followed a downwardly revised 0.9% y/y increase…
Daily Insights
World Economy Already In Recession

The world economy is likely already in recession, defined as world growth dipping to sub-2 percent. So far, the world recession has been China-led, but in the coming months it will change to being developed economy-led. Hence, while metals and industrial commodities may get some brief respite, high yield credit and stocks will underperform government bonds. New tactical recommendations are to overweight French luxury goods versus US tech, and to overweight USD/COP.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
ISM Signals Further Downward Pressure On Goods Inflation
The ISM PMI sent a pessimistic signal about US manufacturing conditions in June. The headline index dropped 0.9 points to a 3-year low of 46.0 – it eighth consecutive month below the 50 boom-bust line. This is consistent with the S&P Global PMI which fell…
Daily Insights
Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: The W-Shaped Bear Market

Recession is on track to start around year-end. Stocks usually peak shortly before recession begins. So, position defensively but be prepared for a few more months of the rally.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Month-In-Review: Geopolitics, Global Central Banks And The Dollar

This report reviews our key calls for major currencies, in light of recent data releases.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Hot Growth, Cold Prices
Our US Bond Strategy service responds to recent data releases which showed that real economic growth and the labor market are surprisingly resilient, while inflation pressures continued to decline. The 10-year Treasury yield broke above its top-end trading…
Daily Insights
US Housing: Rebound Or Head Fake?
In their just-published update of US housing market conditions,  our colleagues at the BCA Bank Credit Analyst focus on whether May’s strong showing in new home starts and sales in May – up 21% and 12%, respectively – is a head fake or the beginning of a…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics