Inflation/Deflation

In recent months, the European and US economies have greatly diverged, with the Euro Area massively disappointing while the US has surprised to the upside. Can this dichotomy continue or is it Europe’s turn to shine?

Stocks fare best when there is plenty of slack in the economy and growth is strong and getting stronger. The good news is that the economic growth score for the US in our MacroQuant model is above its historic average. The bad news is that US economy is operating with little slack and sentiment is getting complacent. We recommend that investors maintain a modest overweight to equities for the time being but look to get more defensive later this year or in early 2024.

In this report, we explore Brazil’s inflation and monetary policy outlook, the Lula administration’s back-and-forth between pragmatism and populism, and how these factors will affect Brazilian financial markets going forward. All in all, we believe Brazilian risk assets will be in a trading range relative to their EM peers in the next 12 months.

Falling inflation enables central banks to pause rate hikes, which is good news. But time goes on. Restrictive monetary policy, Chinese debt-deflation, energy supply shocks, US and global policy uncertainty, and extreme geopolitical risks will undermine hopes of a soft landing and beautiful disinflation.