The reflation rally continues. Despite our bearish outlook for the year, we think the risks of the current rally lie to the upside given China's redoubling of stimulus at the expense of reform. Populist troubles are picking up in…
There are a number of warning signs that the global and EM equity bounce is unsustainable. The latest episode of housing recovery in China will prove temporary due to still-large imbalances. Overweight Indian stocks: the credit cycle…
Airline stocks have enjoyed some modest relief in recent weeks, but we expect this resilience to fully reverse. The main issue is overcapacity. Discretionary spending is under pressure, based on the message from global manufacturing…
The Fed's recent dovishness represents an acknowledgement of the feedback loop between Fed policy and financial conditions. Expect Fed hawkishness to ramp back up prior to the next rate hike, likely in June.
The Fed's recent dovishness represents an acknowledgement of the feedback loop between Fed policy and financial conditions. Expect Fed hawkishness to ramp back up prior to the next rate hike, likely in June.
The S&P rail index has bounced off its lows but continues to lack profit support to extend the recovery attempt. Total railcar shipments remain under pressure, which signals ongoing weak utilization rates and low odds of a reversal…
A Chinese reflationary cycle is unfolding. Capital spending is showing signs of regained vigor, driven by both housing and infrastructure. Chinese PPI deflation will ease further. This will help reduce balance sheet stress of…
Industrials stocks have been coming out of their funk lately, on the back of a selloff in the U.S. dollar, easing in financials stress, a tentative trough in the commodity hemorrhaging, and a relative calm in China and the emerging…
The S&P electrical equipment & components (EEC) group has comparatively less resource exposure than many other industrial sub-industries. The EEC index is comprised of mature, diversified manufacturing businesses with exposure…