According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, absent China’s exponential credit growth, China’s trend growth rate will fall to 4 percent and the world’s trend growth rate will fall to sub-3 percent.…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy team posits that the BJP's loss of majority in India’s parliament could be a blessing in disguise for India. The new BJP-led coalition with the National Democratic…
The Indian election outcome is a positive development for the country’s long-term socio-economic outlook. Indian stocks, however, remain vulnerable in the near term due to sharply slowing nominal sales and surging real borrowing…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Modi’s loss of a majority government reduces the odds for more reforms, but does not change the structural outlook. Modi comes out of the election with…
Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a third term and will become the third longest-serving prime minister of India. While investors responded negatively to the BJP’s loss of an outright majority, Modi and the NDA will continue to…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Indian Prime Minister Modi is on track to be reelected for his third term, with the latest polls in April averaging 385 seats for the National Democratic Alliance,…
Upward growth revisions for China and India have led the IMF to recently upgrade its 2024 growth forecast for Asia to 4.5% from 4.2%. The regional growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 4.3%. The IMF now expects the…
Seasonal weather and price variability in the first quarter will dissipate, which will reduce the agita caused by the recent inflation scare. This will increase the Fed’s comfort level in initiating a rate-cutting cycle in June with…
While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct…