India
Highlights The strong rally in certain mega-cap stocks has masked the muted revival in the broad equity universe. Limited fiscal stimulus and a broken monetary transmission mechanism herald lackluster economic and profit recoveries. While dedicated EM equity investors should for now maintain…
India: A Breakdown In The Monetary Transmission Mechanism…
Can Modi Deal With India’s Crisis…
Highlights Our net assessment of India is bullish over the long run, but this year is full of risks. Prime Minister Modi will struggle to reboot the economy and maintain social stability in his second term. If unemployment, social unrest, and communal tensions spiral out of control, Modi…
Highlights China and India periodically fight each other on their fuzzy Himalayan border with zero market consequences. A major conflict is possible in the current environment – but it would present a buying opportunity. Chinese escalation with India would not have a negative impact on global…
Feature In this report, we determine which South and Southeast Asian countries are better equipped to endure the COVID-19 pandemic. Answers to this question combined with our macro fundamental analysis lead us to recommend which countries to favor or avoid. We assess several factors in regard to…
On Tuesday, BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service downgraded Indian equities from neutral to underweight.
Indian Equities: A Bleak Outlook…
India’s relative equity performance versus the EM benchmark is breaking down, and we recommend downgrading this bourse from neutral to underweight. Chart II-1 illustrates that Indian stock prices relative to EM in US dollars are breaking below a critical support line. As this technical support…
Indian private banks and consumer staple stocks have been holding up the Indian equity market at a time when the rest of the bourse has been sluggish. Both sectors, however, are extremely expensive and thus tremendously sensitive to minor profit disappointments. Remarkably, private banks now…
Highlights An analysis on India is available on page 12. There is extreme complacency in global financial markets. With currency markets’ implied volatility at a record low, we recommend going long EM currency volatility. The latter will rise in the next six month regardless the direction of…